空气污染、健康与社会剥夺:精细尺度风险评估。
Air pollution, health and social deprivation: A fine-scale risk assessment.
机构信息
Inserm and University Grenoble-Alpes, U1209, IAB, Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to Reproduction and Respiratory Health, Grenoble, France.
Air Rhône-Alpes, Grenoble, France.
出版信息
Environ Res. 2016 May;147:59-70. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2016.01.030. Epub 2016 Feb 5.
Risk assessment studies often ignore within-city variations of air pollutants. Our objective was to quantify the risk associated with fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure in 2 urban areas using fine-scale air pollution modeling and to characterize how this risk varied according to social deprivation. In Grenoble and Lyon areas (0.4 and 1.2 million inhabitants, respectively) in 2012, PM2.5 exposure was estimated on a 10×10m grid by coupling a dispersion model to population density. Outcomes were mortality, lung cancer and term low birth weight incidences. Cases attributable to air pollution were estimated overall and stratifying areas according to the European Deprivation Index (EDI), taking 10µg/m(3) yearly average as reference (counterfactual) level. Estimations were repeated assuming spatial homogeneity of air pollutants within urban area. Median PM2.5 levels were 18.1 and 19.6μg/m(3) in Grenoble and Lyon urban areas, respectively, corresponding to 114 (5.1% of total, 95% confidence interval, CI, 3.2-7.0%) and 491 non-accidental deaths (6.0% of total, 95% CI 3.7-8.3%) attributable to long-term exposure to PM2.5, respectively. Attributable term low birth weight cases represented 23.6% of total cases (9.0-37.1%) in Grenoble and 27.6% of cases (10.7-42.6%) in Lyon. In Grenoble, 6.8% of incident lung cancer cases were attributable to air pollution (95% CI 3.1-10.1%). Risk was lower by 8 to 20% when estimating exposure through background stations. Risk was highest in neighborhoods with intermediate to higher social deprivation. Risk assessment studies relying on background stations to estimate air pollution levels may underestimate the attributable risk.
风险评估研究往往忽略了城市内部空气污染物的变化。我们的目的是通过细尺度空气污染模型量化 2 个城市地区细颗粒物(PM2.5)暴露相关的风险,并描述这种风险如何根据社会剥夺程度而变化。在格勒诺布尔和里昂地区(分别有 40 万和 120 万居民),2012 年通过将扩散模型与人口密度耦合,在 10×10m 网格上估算 PM2.5 暴露量。结果是死亡率、肺癌和早产低体重发生率。根据欧洲剥夺指数(EDI)对整体和分层区域(以每年 10µg/m3 为参考(反事实)水平)进行空气污染归因的病例进行了估计。在假设城市内部空气污染物空间均匀的情况下,重新进行了估计。格勒诺布尔和里昂城市地区的 PM2.5 中位数水平分别为 18.1 和 19.6μg/m3,分别对应于 114 (占总死亡人数的 5.1%,95%置信区间,CI,3.2-7.0%)和 491 例非意外死亡(占总死亡人数的 6.0%,95%CI 3.7-8.3%)归因于长期暴露于 PM2.5。归因于早产低体重的病例占格勒诺布尔总病例的 23.6%(9.0-37.1%),占里昂病例的 27.6%(10.7-42.6%)。在格勒诺布尔,6.8%的肺癌病例归因于空气污染(95%CI 3.1-10.1%)。通过背景站估计暴露量时,风险降低了 8%至 20%。社会剥夺程度处于中等到较高水平的街区风险最高。依赖背景站来估计空气污染水平的风险评估研究可能低估了归因风险。