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作为生理学与保护之间纽带的机制性物种分布建模

Mechanistic species distribution modelling as a link between physiology and conservation.

作者信息

Evans Tyler G, Diamond Sarah E, Kelly Morgan W

机构信息

Department of Biological Sciences, California State University East Bay, 25800 Carlos Bee Boulevard, Hayward, CA 95442, USA.

Department of Biology, Case Western Reserve University, 2080 Adelbert Road, Cleveland, OH 44106, USA.

出版信息

Conserv Physiol. 2015 Dec 21;3(1):cov056. doi: 10.1093/conphys/cov056. eCollection 2015.

Abstract

Climate change conservation planning relies heavily on correlative species distribution models that estimate future areas of occupancy based on environmental conditions encountered in present-day ranges. The approach benefits from rapid assessment of vulnerability over a large number of organisms, but can have poor predictive power when transposed to novel environments and reveals little in the way of causal mechanisms that define changes in species distribution or abundance. Having conservation planning rely largely on this single approach also increases the risk of policy failure. Mechanistic models that are parameterized with physiological information are expected to be more robust when extrapolating distributions to future environmental conditions and can identify physiological processes that set range boundaries. Implementation of mechanistic species distribution models requires knowledge of how environmental change influences physiological performance, and because this information is currently restricted to a comparatively small number of well-studied organisms, use of mechanistic modelling in the context of climate change conservation is limited. In this review, we propose that the need to develop mechanistic models that incorporate physiological data presents an opportunity for physiologists to contribute more directly to climate change conservation and advance the field of conservation physiology. We begin by describing the prevalence of species distribution modelling in climate change conservation, highlighting the benefits and drawbacks of both mechanistic and correlative approaches. Next, we emphasize the need to expand mechanistic models and discuss potential metrics of physiological performance suitable for integration into mechanistic models. We conclude by summarizing other factors, such as the need to consider demography, limiting broader application of mechanistic models in climate change conservation. Ideally, modellers, physiologists and conservation practitioners would work collaboratively to build models, interpret results and consider conservation management options, and articulating this need here may help to stimulate collaboration.

摘要

气候变化保护规划严重依赖于相关物种分布模型,这些模型根据当今分布范围内所遇到的环境条件来估计未来的栖息地面积。这种方法得益于能够快速评估大量生物的脆弱性,但在应用于新环境时可能预测能力较差,并且几乎无法揭示定义物种分布或丰度变化的因果机制。让保护规划在很大程度上依赖于这单一方法也会增加政策失败的风险。用生理信息进行参数化的机理模型在将分布外推到未来环境条件时预计会更稳健,并且能够识别设定分布范围边界的生理过程。实施机理物种分布模型需要了解环境变化如何影响生理性能,而且由于目前这些信息仅限于相对少数经过充分研究的生物,因此在气候变化保护背景下机理模型的应用有限。在本综述中,我们提出,开发纳入生理数据的机理模型的需求为生理学家提供了一个机会,使其能够更直接地为气候变化保护做出贡献,并推动保护生理学领域的发展。我们首先描述物种分布模型在气候变化保护中的普遍程度,强调机理方法和相关方法的优缺点。接下来,我们强调扩展机理模型的必要性,并讨论适合纳入机理模型的生理性能潜在指标。我们通过总结其他因素来得出结论,比如需要考虑种群统计学,这限制了机理模型在气候变化保护中的更广泛应用。理想情况下,建模者、生理学家和保护从业者应合作构建模型、解释结果并考虑保护管理选项,在此阐明这一需求可能有助于促进合作。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0768/4778482/069a8ad8ec36/cov05601.jpg

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