Cancian Maria, Chung Yiyoon, Meyer Daniel R
Institute for Research on Poverty, La Follette School of Public Affairs, and School of Social Work, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1180 Observatory Drive, Madison, WI, 53706, USA.
Department of Public Administration and Management, Konkuk University, 120 Neungdong-ro, Gwangjin-gu, Seoul, 05029, South Korea.
Demography. 2016 Dec;53(6):2045-2074. doi: 10.1007/s13524-016-0511-9.
We consider the intersection between two striking U.S. trends: dramatic increases in the imprisonment of fathers and increases in the proportion of mothers who have children with more than one partner (multiple-partner fertility, or MPF). Using matched longitudinal administrative data that provide unusually comprehensive and accurate information about the occurrence and timing of imprisonment, fertility, and MPF for the population of the state of Wisconsin, we consider the relationship between paternal imprisonment and MPF among unwed mothers. Employing discrete-time event history analysis with multinomial logistic regression, we model the occurrence and timing of the mother's second birth, distinguishing between a birth with the same father and a birth with a different father, and distinguishing between current imprisonment and a history of imprisonment. We find that current imprisonment is associated with an increased likelihood of MPF and a decreased likelihood of fertility with the same father (compared with no additional birth) and that a history of imprisonment is associated with increased MPF in some models but not in our preferred model. To control for unobserved heterogeneity among mothers and assess the evidence of a causal effect of fathers' imprisonment, we also employ the case-time-control method, a fixed-effects method for the analysis of nonrepeated events. Results suggest that fathers' current imprisonment may increase mothers' MPF. Policy implications are discussed.
父亲入狱率急剧上升，以及生育子女的母亲中有多个伴侣（多伴侣生育，即MPF）的比例增加。利用匹配的纵向行政数据，这些数据提供了关于威斯康星州人口的入狱、生育和多伴侣生育的发生及时间的异常全面和准确的信息，我们考察了未婚母亲中父亲入狱与多伴侣生育之间的关系。采用离散时间事件史分析和多项逻辑回归，我们对母亲第二次生育的发生及时间进行建模，区分与同一父亲生育和与不同父亲生育，并区分当前入狱情况和入狱史。我们发现，当前入狱与多伴侣生育可能性增加以及与同一父亲生育的可能性降低（与没有额外生育相比）相关，并且在某些模型中，入狱史与多伴侣生育增加相关，但在我们的首选模型中并非如此。为了控制母亲之间未观察到的异质性并评估父亲入狱因果效应的证据，我们还采用了病例时间对照法，这是一种用于分析非重复事件的固定效应方法。结果表明，父亲当前入狱可能会增加母亲的多伴侣生育。我们讨论了政策含义。
