Mulenga Brian P, Wineman Ayala, Sitko Nicholas J
Department of Agricultural Economics, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK, 74078, USA.
Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48824, USA.
Environ Manage. 2017 Feb;59(2):291-306. doi: 10.1007/s00267-016-0780-5. Epub 2016 Oct 24.
A number of studies use meteorological records to analyze climate trends and assess the impact of climate change on agricultural yields. While these provide quantitative evidence on climate trends and the likely effects thereof, they incorporate limited qualitative analysis of farmers' perceptions of climate change and/or variability. The present study builds on the quantitative methods used elsewhere to analyze climate trends, and in addition compares local narratives of climate change with evidence found in meteorological records in Zambia. Farmers offer remarkably consistent reports of a rainy season that is growing shorter and less predictable. For some climate parameters-notably, rising average temperature-there is a clear overlap between farmers' observations and patterns found in the meteorological records. However, the data do not support the perception that the rainy season used to begin earlier, and we generally do not detect a reported increase in the frequency of dry spells. Several explanations for these discrepancies are offered. Further, we provide policy recommendations to help farmers adapt to climate change/variability, as well as suggestions to shape future climate change policies, programs, and research in developing countries.
许多研究利用气象记录来分析气候趋势，并评估气候变化对农业产量的影响。虽然这些研究提供了关于气候趋势及其可能影响的定量证据，但它们对农民对气候变化和/或变异性的认知的定性分析有限。本研究在其他地方用于分析气候趋势的定量方法的基础上进行，并将赞比亚当地关于气候变化的叙述与气象记录中的证据进行比较。农民们对雨季变短且更不可预测的报告非常一致。对于一些气候参数，特别是平均气温上升，农民的观察结果与气象记录中发现的模式之间存在明显重叠。然而，数据并不支持雨季过去开始得更早的看法，而且我们一般没有检测到报告中干旱期频率的增加。针对这些差异提供了几种解释。此外，我们提供了政策建议，以帮助农民适应气候变化/变异性，并为制定发展中国家未来的气候变化政策、计划和研究提供建议。
