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一种用于预测急性心肌梗死合并心源性休克并接受直接经皮冠状动脉介入治疗患者长期心脏死亡率的新风险评分。

A New Risk Score to Predict Long-Term Cardiac Mortality in Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction Complicated by Cardiogenic Shock and Treated With Primary Percutaneous Intervention.

作者信息

Vergara Ruben, Valenti Renato, Migliorini Angela, Cerisano Giampaolo, Carrabba Nazario, Giurlani Letizia, Antoniucci David

机构信息

Division of Cardiology, Careggi-Hospital, Florence, Italy.

Division of Cardiology, Careggi-Hospital, Florence, Italy.

出版信息

Am J Cardiol. 2017 Feb 1;119(3):351-354. doi: 10.1016/j.amjcard.2016.10.034. Epub 2016 Nov 1.

Abstract

Poor data exist about predictors of long-term cardiac mortality in patients presenting acute myocardial infarction (AMI) complicated by cardiogenic shock (CS) treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (p-PCI), and current risk-adjustment models in this setting are not adequate. We retrospectively analyzed our registry of patients with AMI treated with p-PCI. The aim of this study was to identify the independent predictors of 2-year cardiac mortality in patients presenting CS. A Risk Score was created assigning at any independent variable a value directly correlated with its power to increase mortality. From 1995 to 2013, 4,078 consecutive patients underwent primary PCI for AMI. Of these, 388 patients (10.5%) had CS on admission. The p-PCI procedural success was 85%. At 2-year follow-up, the overall cardiac mortality rate was 48%. The independent predictors related with mortality were: out of hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) (hazard ratio [HR] 1.51; p = 0.04), age >75 years (HR 2.09; p ≤0.001), and failure p-PCI (HR 2.30; p <0.001). On the basis of the HR obtained, we assigned an incremental value to each independent variable identified (OHCA: 0.5 points, age>75 years: 1 point, failed p-PCI: 1.5 points). The mortality rates among different score risk level were highly significant (p <0.001): 32% score risk 1 (points 0), 58% score risk 2 (points 0.5-2), and 83% score risk 3 (points >2), respectively. In conclusion, OHCA, age >75 years, and failed p-PCI are strong predictors of 2-year cardiac mortality. On the basis of this, a rapid score tool could be useful to identify patients at major risk of death.

摘要

关于接受直接经皮冠状动脉介入治疗(p-PCI)的急性心肌梗死(AMI)合并心源性休克(CS)患者长期心脏死亡预测因素的数据匮乏,目前该情况下的风险调整模型并不充分。我们回顾性分析了接受p-PCI治疗的AMI患者登记资料。本研究的目的是确定CS患者2年心脏死亡的独立预测因素。创建了一个风险评分,为每个独立变量赋予一个与其增加死亡率的能力直接相关的值。1995年至2013年,4078例连续患者接受了AMI的直接PCI治疗。其中,388例患者(10.5%)入院时存在CS。p-PCI手术成功率为85%。在2年随访时,总体心脏死亡率为48%。与死亡率相关的独立预测因素为:院外心脏骤停(OHCA)(风险比[HR]1.51;p = 0.04)、年龄>75岁(HR 2.09;p≤0.001)以及p-PCI失败(HR 2.30;p<0.001)。根据获得的HR,我们为每个确定的独立变量赋予一个增加值(OHCA:0.5分,年龄>75岁:1分,p-PCI失败:1.5分)。不同评分风险水平的死亡率差异具有高度显著性(p<0.001):风险评分为1(0分)的患者死亡率为32%,风险评分为2(0.5 - 2分)的患者死亡率为58%,风险评分为3(>2分)的患者死亡率为83%。总之,OHCA、年龄>75岁以及p-PCI失败是2年心脏死亡的强预测因素。基于此,一种快速评分工具可能有助于识别死亡风险较高的患者。

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