Fullybright R
Department of Applied Research, Applied-Research Center for True Development, 4016 rue Prefontaine, Montréal, Québec, H1W 0A3, Canada.
Eur J Clin Microbiol Infect Dis. 2017 Apr;36(4):603-609. doi: 10.1007/s10096-016-2855-x. Epub 2016 Nov 28.
It has previously been shown that the rate of drug resistance emergence in medicine is exponential, while we have been producing drugs at a much lower rate. Our ability to successfully contain resistance at any one time is function of how many drugs we have at our disposal to counter new resistances from pathogens. Here, we assess our level of preparedness through a mathematical comparison of the drug manufacture rate by the pharmaceutical industry with the resistance emergence rate in pathogens. To that effect, changes in the rates of growth of the drugs production and resistance emergence processes are computed over multiple time segments and compared. It is found that new resistance emergence rate in infectious diseases medicine remains mathematically and permanently ahead of the drugs production rate by the pharmaceutical industry. Consequently, we are not in a position to ever contain current or future strengths of resistance from pathogens. A review of current practices is called for.
此前已有研究表明，医学中耐药性出现的速率呈指数增长，而我们生产药物的速率要低得多。我们在任何时候成功控制耐药性的能力取决于我们可用于对抗病原体新耐药性的药物数量。在此，我们通过对制药行业的药物生产速率与病原体耐药性出现速率进行数学比较，来评估我们的准备程度。为此，计算了多个时间段内药物生产和耐药性出现过程的增长率变化并进行比较。结果发现，传染病医学中新耐药性出现的速率在数学上始终领先于制药行业的药物生产速率。因此，我们无法控制病原体当前或未来的耐药性强度。有必要对当前做法进行审查。
