Blanken Hauke, Tremblay Louis Bruno, Gaskin Susan, Slavin Alexander
Department of Civil Engineering and Applied Mechanics, McGill University, 817 Sherbrooke Street West, Montreal, QC, H3A 0C3, Canada.
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University, 805 Sherbrooke Street West, Montreal,QC,H3A 0B9, Canada.
Mar Pollut Bull. 2017 Mar 15;116(1-2):315-331. doi: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2016.12.070. Epub 2017 Jan 15.
We present worst-case assessments of contamination in sea ice and surface waters resulting from hypothetical well blowout oil spills at ten sites in the Arctic Ocean basin. Spill extents are estimated by considering Eulerian passive tracers in the surface ocean of the MITgcm (a hydrostatic, coupled ice-ocean model). Oil in sea ice, and contamination resulting from melting of oiled ice, is tracked using an offline Lagrangian scheme. Spills are initialized on November 1st 1980-2010 and tracked for one year. An average spill was transported 1100km and potentially affected 1.1 million km. The direction and magnitude of simulated oil trajectories are consistent with known large-scale current and sea ice circulation patterns, and trajectories frequently cross international boundaries. The simulated trajectories of oil in sea ice match observed ice drift trajectories well. During the winter oil transport by drifting sea ice is more significant than transport with surface currents.
我们给出了北冰洋盆地十个地点假设的油井井喷溢油事故导致的海冰和地表水污染物的最坏情况评估。通过在麻省理工学院通用循环模式（MITgcm，一种静水压耦合冰-海洋模型）的表层海洋中考虑欧拉被动示踪剂来估算溢油范围。使用离线拉格朗日方案追踪海冰中的油以及油污冰融化产生的污染物。溢油事故于1980年至2010年11月1日初始化，并追踪一年。一次平均溢油被输送了1100公里，潜在影响面积达110万平方公里。模拟的油轨迹方向和幅度与已知的大规模洋流和海冰环流模式一致，并且轨迹经常跨越国际边界。海冰中油的模拟轨迹与观测到的冰漂移轨迹匹配良好。在冬季，通过漂移海冰进行的油输送比通过表层洋流进行的输送更为显著。
