一种通过结合自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）模型和调整后的图基控制图及其解释规则来检测登革出血热疫情的新方法。
A new approach to detect epidemic of DHF by combining ARIMA model and adjusted Tukey's control chart with interpretation rules.
作者信息
Mekparyup Jatupat, Saithanu Kidakan
机构信息
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Burapha University , Chonburi, Thailand.
出版信息
Interv Med Appl Sci. 2016 Sep;8(3):118-120. doi: 10.1556/1646.8.2016.3.6.
The aim of this study was to propose a new method to detect the epidemic of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model [ARIMA(1,0,2)(0,1,2)] with no constant and adjusted Tukey's control chart and the results obtained were interpreted using seventh interpretation rule. Data on the number of DHF cases in Chonburi reported during 2007-2013 were used. The results indicated that this new approach efficiently detected the epidemic of DHF in October 2015 with the forecasted number of DHF (257 cases) and root-mean-squared error (RMSE = 46.71).
本研究的目的是提出一种新方法，使用无常数的季节性自回归积分移动平均模型[ARIMA(1,0,2)(0,1,2)]和调整后的图基控制图来检测登革出血热（DHF）的流行情况，并使用第七种解释规则对所得结果进行解释。使用了春武里府2007 - 2013年期间报告的登革出血热病例数数据。结果表明，这种新方法有效地检测到了2015年10月登革出血热的流行，预测的登革出血热病例数为257例，均方根误差（RMSE = 46.71）。
Zotero 插件