Paulino Pereira Nuno Rui, Mclaughlin Lily, Janssen Stein J, van Dijk Cornelis N, Bramer Jos A M, Laufer Ilya, Bilsky Mark H, Schwab Joseph H
Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Orthopaedic Oncology Service, Massachusetts General Hospital-Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.
Department of Neurosurgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York.
J Surg Oncol. 2017 Jun;115(8):1019-1027. doi: 10.1002/jso.24620. Epub 2017 Mar 27.
Externally validate the SORG12 nomogram and SORG classic algorithm at estimating survival in patients with spine metastatic disease, and compare predictive accuracy with other survival algorithms.
We received data from 100 patients who had surgery for spine metastatic disease at an external institution. Algorithms were accurate if the Area Under Curve (AUC) was >0.70, and we used Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis to compare predictive accuracy with other algorithms.
The SORG nomogram accurately estimated 3-months (AUC = 0.74) and 12-months survival (AUC = 0.78); it did not accurately estimate 1-month survival (AUC = 0.65). There was no difference in 1-month survival accuracy between the SORG nomogram and SORG classic algorithm (P = 0.162). The SORG nomogram was best at predicting 3-months survival, compared with the Tokuhashi score and SORG classic algorithm (P = 0.009). The SORG nomogram was best at predicting 12-months survival, compared with the Tomita score, Ghori score, Bauer modified score, Tokuhashi score, and SORG classic algorithm (P = 0.033).
The SORG nomogram accurately estimated 3- and 12-months survival for operable spine metastatic disease, and is therefore, useful in clinical practice.
对外验证SORG12列线图和SORG经典算法在估计脊柱转移性疾病患者生存率方面的准确性，并与其他生存算法比较预测准确性。
我们从一家外部机构获取了100例接受脊柱转移性疾病手术患者的数据。如果曲线下面积（AUC）>0.70，则算法准确，我们使用受试者工作特征（ROC）分析将预测准确性与其他算法进行比较。
SORG列线图准确估计了3个月（AUC = 0.74）和12个月生存率（AUC = 0.78）；但未准确估计1个月生存率（AUC = 0.65）。SORG列线图和SORG经典算法在1个月生存率准确性方面无差异（P = 0.162）。与Tokuhashi评分和SORG经典算法相比，SORG列线图在预测3个月生存率方面表现最佳（P = 0.009）。与Tomita评分、Ghori评分、Bauer改良评分、Tokuhashi评分和SORG经典算法相比，SORG列线图在预测12个月生存率方面表现最佳（P = 0.033）。
SORG列线图准确估计了可手术脊柱转移性疾病的3个月和l2个月生存率，因此在临床实践中有用。
