Cao Shanshan, Gentili Monica, Griffin Paul M, Griffin Susan O, Harati Pravara, Johnson Ben, Serban Nicoleta, Tomar Scott
1 School of Industrial & Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.
2 Industrial Engineering Department, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY, USA.
Public Health Rep. 2017 May/Jun;132(3):343-349. doi: 10.1177/0033354917699579. Epub 2017 Mar 30.
Demand for dental care is expected to outpace supply through 2025. The objectives of this study were to determine the extent of pediatric dental care shortages in Georgia and to develop a general method for estimation that can be applied to other states.
We estimated supply and demand for pediatric preventive dental care for the 159 counties in Georgia in 2015. We compared pediatric preventive dental care shortage areas (where demand exceeded twice the supply) designated by our methods with dental health professional shortage areas designated by the Health Resources & Services Administration. We estimated caries risk from a multivariate analysis of National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data and national census data. We estimated county-level demand based on the time needed to perform preventive dental care services and the proportion of time that dentists spend on pediatric preventive dental care services from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey.
Pediatric preventive dental care supply exceeded demand in Georgia in 75 counties: the average annual county-level pediatric preventive dental care demand was 16 866 hours, and the supply was 32 969 hours. We identified 41 counties as pediatric dental care shortage areas, 14 of which had not been designated by the Health Resources & Services Administration.
Age- and service-specific information on dental care shortage areas could result in more efficient provider staffing and geographic targeting.
预计到2025年，牙科护理的需求将超过供给。本研究的目的是确定佐治亚州儿科牙科护理短缺的程度，并开发一种可应用于其他州的通用估算方法。
我们估算了2015年佐治亚州159个县的儿科预防性牙科护理的供给和需求。我们将通过我们的方法确定的儿科预防性牙科护理短缺地区（需求超过供给两倍的地区）与卫生资源与服务管理局指定的牙科健康专业人员短缺地区进行了比较。我们通过对国家健康与营养检查调查数据和全国人口普查数据的多变量分析估算了龋齿风险。我们根据进行预防性牙科护理服务所需的时间以及医疗支出小组调查中牙医花费在儿科预防性牙科护理服务上的时间比例估算了县级需求。
2015年佐治亚州有75个县的儿科预防性牙科护理供给超过需求：县级儿科预防性牙科护理的年均需求为16866小时，供给为32969小时。我们确定了41个县为儿科牙科护理短缺地区，其中14个县未被卫生资源与服务管理局指定。
关于牙科护理短缺地区的特定年龄和服务信息可提高提供者人员配置和地理定位的效率。
