Predictive Microbiology and HACCP.

While both predictive microbiology and hazard analysis critical control point (HACCP) programs are still in the developmental stages as food-safety tools, predictive models are available that are potentially useful in the development and maintenance of HACCP systems. When conducting a HACCP study, models can be used to assess the risk (probability) and determine the consequence of a microbiological hazard in food. The risk of a hazard is reduced and controlled within the HACCP framework by assigning critical control points (CCPs) to the food process. By using predictive models, ranges and combinations of process parameters can be established as critical limits for CCPs. This has the advantage of providing more processing options while maintaining a degree of safety equivalent to that of a single set of critical limits. Validation testing of individual CCPs can be reduced if the CCP models were developed with a similar food type. Microbiological as well as mechanical and human reliability models may be used to establish sets of rules for rule-based expert computer systems in an effort to automate the development of HACCP plans and evaluate the status of process deviations. Models can also be used in combination with sensors and microprocessors for real-time process control. Since HACCP is a risk-reduction tool, then predictive microbiological models are tools used to aid in the decision-making processes of risk assessment and in describing process parameters necessary to achieve an acceptable level of risk.