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龙卷风期间预警信息源数量的预测因素。

Predictors for the Number of Warning Information Sources During Tornadoes.

作者信息

Cong Zhen, Luo Jianjun, Liang Daan, Nejat Ali

机构信息

1Department of Human Development and Family Studies,Boston,Massachusetts.

2AIR Worldwide,Boston,Massachusetts.

出版信息

Disaster Med Public Health Prep. 2017 Apr;11(2):168-172. doi: 10.1017/dmp.2016.97.

Abstract

People may receive tornado warnings from multiple information sources, but little is known about factors that affect the number of warning information sources (WISs). This study examined predictors for the number of WISs with a telephone survey on randomly sampled residents in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and Joplin, Missouri, approximately 1 year after both cities were struck by violent tornadoes (EF4 and EF5) in 2011. The survey included 1006 finished interviews and the working sample included 903 respondents. Poisson regression and Zero-Inflated Poisson regression showed that older age and having an emergency plan predicted more WISs in both cities. Education, marital status, and gender affected the possibilities of receiving warnings and the number of WISs either in Joplin or in Tuscaloosa. The findings suggest that social disparity affects the access to warnings not only with respect to the likelihood of receiving any warnings but also with respect to the number of WISs. In addition, historical and social contexts are important for examining predictors for the number of WISs. We recommend that the number of WISs should be regarded as an important measure to evaluate access to warnings in addition to the likelihood of receiving warnings. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:168-172).

摘要

人们可能会从多个信息来源收到龙卷风预警,但对于影响预警信息来源数量(WISs)的因素却知之甚少。本研究通过对阿拉巴马州塔斯卡卢萨市和密苏里州乔普林市的随机抽样居民进行电话调查,考察了WISs数量的预测因素。这两个城市在2011年都遭受了强烈龙卷风(EF4和EF5级)袭击,调查时间约在袭击发生后1年。该调查共完成1006次访谈,有效样本包括903名受访者。泊松回归和零膨胀泊松回归分析表明,在这两个城市中,年龄较大和制定了应急预案的人报告的WISs数量更多。教育程度、婚姻状况以及性别在乔普林市或塔斯卡卢萨市影响了接收预警的可能性以及WISs的数量。研究结果表明,社会差异不仅在接收任何预警的可能性方面,而且在WISs数量方面都影响着获取预警的机会。此外,历史和社会背景对于研究WISs数量的预测因素也很重要。我们建议,除了接收预警的可能性外,WISs数量应被视为评估获取预警机会的一项重要指标。(《灾难医学与公共卫生防范》。2017年;11:168 - 172)

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