Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544, USA.
Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544, USA.
Nat Commun. 2017 May 25;8:15585. doi: 10.1038/ncomms15585.
Expanded access to measles vaccination was among the most successful public health interventions of recent decades. All WHO regions currently target measles elimination by 2020, yet continued measles circulation makes that goal seem elusive. Using Demographic and Health Surveys with generalized additive models, we quantify spatial patterns of measles vaccination in ten contiguous countries in the African Great Lakes region between 2009-2014. Seven countries have 'coldspots' where vaccine coverage is below the WHO target of 80%. Over 14 million children under 5 years of age live in coldspots across the region, and a total of 8-12 million children are unvaccinated. Spatial patterns of vaccination do not map directly onto sub-national administrative units and transnational coldspots exist. Clustering of low vaccination areas may allow for pockets of susceptibility that sustain circulation despite high overall coverage. Targeting at-risk areas and transnational coordination are likely required to eliminate measles in the region.
扩大麻疹疫苗接种的可及性是近几十年来最成功的公共卫生干预措施之一。所有世卫组织区域目前都将在 2020 年之前消除麻疹作为目标,但麻疹的持续传播使得这一目标似乎遥不可及。本研究利用 2009-2014 年在非洲大湖区的十个毗邻国家进行的人口与健康调查,采用广义加性模型来量化麻疹疫苗接种的空间模式。七个国家存在“冷点”,疫苗覆盖率低于世卫组织 80%的目标。该区域有超过 1400 万 5 岁以下儿童生活在冷点地区,共有 800 万至 1200 万儿童未接种疫苗。疫苗接种的空间模式并没有直接映射到国家以下的行政单位,而且存在跨国冷点。低疫苗接种地区的聚集可能会导致即使在高覆盖率的情况下,也会存在持续传播的易感染区域。针对高危地区和跨国协调可能是该地区消除麻疹所必需的。