Department of International Environmental and Agricultural Sciences, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Tokyo, Japan.
Department of Pesticides Residues and Environmental Pollution, Central Agricultural Pesticide Laboratory, Giza, Egypt.
Pest Manag Sci. 2017 Dec;73(12):2429-2438. doi: 10.1002/ps.4633. Epub 2017 Aug 17.
The PCPF-1 model was improved for forecasting the fate and transport of metabolites in addition to parent compounds in rice paddies. In the new PCPF-M model, metabolites are generated from the dissipation of pesticide applied in rice paddies through hydrolysis, photolysis and biological degradations. The methodology to parameterize the model was illustrated using two scenarios for which uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were also conducted.
In a batch degradation experiment, the hourly forecasted concentrations of fipronil and its metabolites in paddy water were very accurate. In a field-scale experiment, the hourly forecasted concentrations of fipronil in paddy water and paddy soil were accurate while the corresponding daily forecasted concentrations of metabolites were adequate. The major contributors to the variation of the forecasted metabolite concentrations in paddy water and paddy soil were the formation fractions of the metabolites. The influence of uncertainty included in input parameters on the forecasted metabolite concentration was high during the peak concentration of metabolite in paddy water. In contrast, in paddy soil, the metabolite concentrations forecasted several days after the initial pesticide application were sensitive to the uncertainty incorporated in the input parameters.
The PCPF-M model simultaneously forecasts the concentrations of a parent pesticide and up to three metabolites. The model was validated using fipronil and two of its metabolites in paddy water and paddy soil. The model can be used in the early stage of the pesticide registration process and in risk assessment analysis for the evaluation of pesticide exposure. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.
为了预测稻田中母体化合物及其代谢物的命运和迁移,对 PCPF-1 模型进行了改进。在新的 PCPF-M 模型中,通过水解、光解和生物降解作用,从施用于稻田的农药的消解中生成代谢物。使用两种情况说明了对模型进行参数化的方法,还对这两种情况进行了不确定性和敏感性分析。
在批处理降解实验中,稻田水中氟虫腈及其代谢物的逐时预测浓度非常准确。在田间尺度实验中,稻田水中和稻田土壤中氟虫腈的逐时预测浓度准确,而代谢物的相应逐日预测浓度则足够。预测稻田水中和稻田土壤中代谢物浓度变化的主要因素是代谢物的形成分数。输入参数中包含的不确定性对稻田水中代谢物浓度的预测影响较大,在代谢物浓度峰值期间影响较大。相比之下,在初始施药几天后,预测代谢物浓度在稻田土壤中对输入参数中包含的不确定性敏感。
PCPF-M 模型可同时预测母体农药及其三种代谢物的浓度。使用氟虫腈及其两种代谢物在稻田水和稻田土中对模型进行了验证。该模型可用于农药注册过程的早期阶段和风险评估分析,以评估农药暴露。 © 2017 化学工业协会。