Department of Criminology, Law & Society, University of California, Irvine.
Department of Sociology, Anthropology & Criminal Justice, Rutgers University-Camden.
Law Hum Behav. 2017 Aug;41(4):344-353. doi: 10.1037/lhb0000249. Epub 2017 Jun 26.
To manage intimate partner violence (IPV), the criminal justice system has turned to risk assessment instruments to predict if a perpetrator will reoffend. Empirically determining whether offenders assessed as high risk are those who recidivate is critical for establishing the predictive validity of IPV risk assessment instruments and for guiding the supervision of perpetrators. But by focusing solely on the relation between calculated risk scores and subsequent IPV recidivism, previous studies of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments omitted mediating factors intended to mitigate the risk of this behavioral recidivism. The purpose of this study was to examine the mediating effects of such factors and the moderating effects of risk assessment on the relation between assessed risk (using the Domestic Violence Screening Instrument-Revised [DVSI-R]) and recidivistic IPV. Using a sample of 2,520 perpetrators of IPV, results revealed that time sentenced to jail and time sentenced to probation each significantly mediated the relation between DVSI-R risk level and frequency of reoffending. The results also revealed that assessed risk moderated the relation between these mediating factors and IPV recidivism, with reduced recidivism (negative estimated effects) for high-risk perpetrators but increased recidivism (positive estimate effects) for low-risk perpetrators. The implication is to assign interventions to the level of risk so that no harm is done. (PsycINFO Database Record
为了管理亲密伴侣暴力（IPV），刑事司法系统已经转向风险评估工具来预测犯罪者是否会再次犯罪。从经验上确定被评估为高风险的罪犯是否会重新犯罪，对于确定 IPV 风险评估工具的预测有效性以及指导对犯罪者的监督至关重要。但是，通过仅仅关注计算出的风险分数与随后的 IPV 累犯之间的关系，以前对风险评估工具的预测有效性的研究忽略了旨在减轻这种行为累犯风险的中介因素。本研究的目的是检验这些因素的中介效应以及风险评估对评估风险（使用家庭暴力筛查工具修订版[DVSI-R]）与累犯性 IPV 之间关系的调节效应。使用 2520 名 IPV 犯罪者的样本，结果表明，被判入狱的时间和被判缓刑的时间都显著中介了 DVSI-R 风险水平与再犯频率之间的关系。结果还表明，评估风险调节了这些中介因素与 IPV 累犯之间的关系，高风险犯罪者的累犯率降低（负估计效应），而低风险犯罪者的累犯率增加（正估计效应）。这意味着要根据风险水平分配干预措施，以免造成伤害。
