Li Fawen, Wang Liping, Zhao Yong
State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, People's Republic of China.
State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resource and Hydro-power Research, Beijing, 100038, People's Republic of China.
Environ Monit Assess. 2017 Aug;189(8):397. doi: 10.1007/s10661-017-6102-4. Epub 2017 Jul 17.
Land use pattern contains a large amount of information about the flood hazard-formative environments, which is the most sensitive factor in hazard-formative environments. In this paper, based on the land use pattern in 2008 (the base year) and in 2020 (the planning year), the comparative analysis of flood disaster risk changes in Haihe basin were studied by the spatial analysis function of ARCGIS and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The results showed the flood disaster risk in Haihe basin had an obvious zonality in the space, among which low risk was located in the northwest regions, and high risk was located in the southeast regions. Flood disaster risk in planning year was lower than in the base year. The risk value of 2020 in the mountain decreases from 0.445 to 0.430, while the risk value of the plain increases from 0.562 to 0.564. For the plain, high-risk area in 2020 is increased by 13.2%, which is the biggest change in risk grades. For the mountain, low-risk area and low risk area in 2020 are increased, and the low-risk area is the biggest increase, up to 37.7%. Meanwhile, high-risk area, high risk area, and medium risk area all tend to decrease, and the high-risk area is the biggest decrease, up to 32.6%. Overall, land use planning pattern under low-carbon mode is conducive to the Haihe basin flood control. The research can provide scientific foundations for basin land use planning and flood disaster risk management.
土地利用格局蕴含着大量关于洪水灾害形成环境的信息，而这是灾害形成环境中最敏感的因素。本文基于2008年（基准年）和2020年（规划年）的土地利用格局，利用ARCGIS的空间分析功能和层次分析法（AHP）对海河流域洪水灾害风险变化进行了对比分析。结果表明，海河流域洪水灾害风险在空间上具有明显的地带性，其中低风险区位于西北部地区，高风险区位于东南部地区。规划年的洪水灾害风险低于基准年。2020年山区的风险值从0.445降至0.430，而平原地区的风险值从0.562增至0.564。对于平原地区，2020年高风险区增加了13.2%，这是风险等级变化最大的。对于山区，2020年低风险区和较低风险区增加，且低风险区增加幅度最大，达37.7%。同时，高风险区、较高风险区和中风险区均呈下降趋势，其中高风险区下降幅度最大，达32.6%。总体而言，低碳模式下的土地利用规划格局有利于海河流域防洪。该研究可为流域土地利用规划和洪水灾害风险管理提供科学依据。
