Lian Lishu, Li Baofu, Chen Yaning, Chu Cuicui, Qin Yanhua
College of Geography and Tourism, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao, Shandong, 276826, China.
The State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China.
Environ Monit Assess. 2017 Sep 11;189(10):501. doi: 10.1007/s10661-017-6204-z.
Land use/cover changes (LUCCs) are an important cause of regional climate changes, but the contribution of LUCCs to regional climate changes is not clear. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and statistical methods were used to investigate changes in meteorologic variables in January, April, July, and October 2013 due to local LUCCs from 1990 to 2010 in southern Shandong province, China. The results indicate that the WRF model simulates temperatures in the region well, with high correlation coefficients (0.86-0.97, p < 0.001) between the modeled and measured values. The model simulates precipitation less well, with correlation coefficients of 0.41-0.91, but they are all at statistically significant levels, with p < 0.05. During the 20-year period, the LUCCs in the study area consisted mainly of conversions from dry land to urbanized land (747.3 km) and bare/sparse vegetation (132.4 km). The LUCCs caused a 0.16 °C temperature increase in January and October and 0.01 and 0.18 °C temperature decreases in April and July, respectively. The range of temperature changes over mixed forest and water bodies due to the LUCCs was wide (0.39-1.31 °C) and was narrower over deciduous broadleaf forest and wetland (0.01 to 0.06 °C). The LUCCs did not change the precipitation greatly in January, April, and October but did affect the precipitation in July substantially, causing a decrease of 23.71 mm. The LUCCs did not affect wind speed and direction substantially during these four months: average wind speeds increased by 0.02 and 0.01 m/s in January and October, respectively, and decreased by 0.02 and 0.05 m/s in April and July, respectively. Overall, The LUCCs affected spring temperatures the least and summer precipitation the most.
土地利用/覆盖变化（LUCCs）是区域气候变化的一个重要原因，但LUCCs对区域气候变化的贡献尚不清楚。在本研究中，利用天气研究与预报（WRF）模型和统计方法，研究了2013年1月、4月、7月和10月中国山东省南部1990年至2010年当地LUCCs导致的气象变量变化。结果表明，WRF模型对该地区气温模拟效果良好，模拟值与实测值之间的相关系数较高（0.86 - 0.97，p < 0.001）。该模型对降水的模拟效果稍差，相关系数为0.41 - 0.91，但均处于统计显著水平，p < 0.05。在这20年期间，研究区域的LUCCs主要包括旱地向城市化土地的转变（747.3平方千米）和裸地/稀疏植被的转变（132.4平方千米）。LUCCs导致1月和10月气温分别升高0.16℃，4月和7月气温分别降低0.01℃和0.18℃。LUCCs导致混交林和水体区域的温度变化范围较大（0.39 - 1.31℃），落叶阔叶林和湿地区域的温度变化范围较窄（0.01至0.06℃）。LUCCs在1月、4月和10月对降水影响不大，但对7月降水影响较大，导致降水量减少23.71毫米。在这四个月中，LUCCs对风速和风向影响不大：1月和10月平均风速分别增加0.02米/秒和0.01米/秒，4月和7月分别降低0.02米/秒和0.05米/秒。总体而言，LUCCs对春季气温影响最小，对夏季降水影响最大。
