Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia.
Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia.
Vaccine. 2017 Nov 1;35(46):6329-6335. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2017.08.083. Epub 2017 Sep 9.
BACKGROUND: Estonia has high cervical cancer incidence and low screening coverage. We modelled the impact of population-based bivalent, quadrivalent or nonavalent HPV vaccination alongside cervical cancer screening. METHODS: A Markov cohort model of the natural history of HPV infection was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating a cohort of 12-year-old girls with bivalent, quadrivalent or nonavalent vaccine in two doses in a national, school-based vaccination programme. The model followed the natural progression of HPV infection into subsequent genital warts (GW); premalignant lesions (CIN1-3); cervical, oropharyngeal, vulvar, vaginal and anal cancer. Vaccine coverage was assumed to be 70%. A time horizon of 88years (up to 100years of age) was used to capture all lifetime vaccination costs and benefits. Costs and utilities were discounted using an annual discount rate of 5%. RESULTS: Vaccination of 12-year-old girls alongside screening compared to screening alone had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €14,007 (bivalent), €14,067 (quadrivalent) and €11,633 (nonavalent) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) in the base-case scenario and ranged between €5367-21,711, €5142-21,800 and €4563-18,142, respectively, in sensitivity analysis. The results were most sensitive to changes in discount rate, vaccination regimen, vaccine prices and cervical cancer screening coverage. CONCLUSION: Vaccination of 12-year-old girls alongside current cervical cancer screening can be considered a cost-effective intervention in Estonia. Adding HPV vaccination to the national immunisation schedule is expected to prevent a considerable number of HPV infections, genital warts, premalignant lesions, HPV related cancers and deaths. Although in our model ICERs varied slightly depending on the vaccine used, they generally fell within the same range. Cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination was found to be most dependent on vaccine cost and duration of vaccine immunity, but not on the type of vaccine used.
背景:爱沙尼亚宫颈癌发病率高,筛查覆盖率低。我们建立了基于人群的二价、四价和九价 HPV 疫苗接种与宫颈癌筛查相结合的模型,以评估对 12 岁女孩进行两剂次二价、四价或九价疫苗国家免疫规划接种的成本效益。
方法:采用 HPV 感染自然史的 Markov 队列模型,评估在全国学校疫苗接种规划中对 12 岁女孩进行两剂次二价、四价或九价疫苗接种的成本效益,该模型遵循 HPV 感染进展为随后的生殖器疣(GW)、癌前病变(CIN1-3)、宫颈癌、口咽癌、外阴癌、阴道癌和肛门癌的自然过程。疫苗接种覆盖率假设为 70%。使用 88 年(直至 100 岁)的时间范围来捕获所有终生疫苗接种的成本和效益。成本和效用采用 5%的年贴现率进行贴现。
结果:在基础情况下,12 岁女孩接种疫苗并结合筛查与单独筛查相比,每获得一个质量调整生命年(QALY)的增量成本效益比(ICER)分别为 14007 欧元(二价)、14067 欧元(四价)和 11633 欧元(九价),在敏感性分析中,分别为 5367-21711 欧元、5142-21800 欧元和 4563-18142 欧元。结果对贴现率、疫苗接种方案、疫苗价格和宫颈癌筛查覆盖率的变化最为敏感。
结论:在爱沙尼亚,12 岁女孩接种疫苗并结合目前的宫颈癌筛查可以被认为是一种具有成本效益的干预措施。将 HPV 疫苗接种纳入国家免疫规划预计将预防大量 HPV 感染、生殖器疣、癌前病变、HPV 相关癌症和死亡。虽然在我们的模型中,不同疫苗的 ICER 略有不同,但它们大致在同一范围内。HPV 疫苗接种的成本效益主要取决于疫苗成本和疫苗免疫持续时间,但与使用的疫苗类型无关。
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