Li Yinghui, Huang Shuaijin, Qu Xuexin
School of Economic Management, Southwest Jiao tong University, Chengdu 610031, China.
Research Center of the Economy of the Upper Reaches of Yangtze River, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2017 Oct 27;14(11):1307. doi: 10.3390/ijerph14111307.
The Three Gorges Project was implemented in 1994 to promote sustainable water resource use and development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (hereafter "Reservoir Area"). However, massive discharge of wastewater along the river threatens these goals; therefore, this study employs a grey prediction model (GM) to predict the annual emissions of primary pollution sources, including industrial wastewater, domestic wastewater, and oily and domestic wastewater from ships, that influence the Three Gorges Reservoir Area water environment. First, we optimize the initial values of a traditional GM (1,1) model, and build a new GM (1,1) model that minimizes the sum of squares of the relative simulation errors. Second, we use the new GM (1,1) model to simulate historical annual emissions data for the four pollution sources and thereby test the effectiveness of the model. Third, we predict the annual emissions of the four pollution sources in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area for a future period. The prediction results reveal the annual emission trends for the major wastewater types, and indicate the primary sources of water pollution in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Based on our predictions, we suggest several countermeasures against water pollution and towards the sustainable development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.
三峡工程于1994年实施，旨在促进三峡库区（以下简称“库区”）水资源的可持续利用和水环境的发展。然而，沿江大量的废水排放威胁着这些目标；因此，本研究采用灰色预测模型（GM）来预测影响三峡库区水环境的主要污染源的年排放量，包括工业废水、生活污水以及船舶含油污水和生活污水。首先，我们优化了传统GM（1,1）模型的初始值，并构建了一个使相对模拟误差平方和最小的新GM（1,1）模型。其次，我们使用新的GM（1,1）模型对四种污染源的历史年排放数据进行模拟，从而检验该模型的有效性。第三，我们预测了三峡库区未来一段时间内四种污染源的年排放量。预测结果揭示了主要废水类型的年排放趋势，并指出了三峡库区水污染的主要来源。基于我们的预测，我们提出了一些针对水污染和三峡库区水环境可持续发展的对策。
