Pliego Pliego Emilene, Velázquez-Castro Jorge, Eichhorn Markus P, Fraguela Collar Andrés
Facultad de Ciencias Físico-Matemáticas, Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla, Avenida San Claudio y 18 Sur, Col. San Manuel, Puebla, México.
School of Life Sciences, The University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK.
J Theor Biol. 2018 Jan 21;437:126-136. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2017.10.025. Epub 2017 Oct 25.
Dengue fever is increasing in geographical range, spread by invasion of its vector mosquitoes. The trade in second-hand tires has been implicated as a factor in this process because they act as mobile reservoirs of mosquito eggs and larvae. Regional transportation of tires can create linkages between rural areas with dengue and disease-free urban areas, potentially giving rise to outbreaks even in areas with strong local control measures. In this work we sought to model the dynamics of mosquito transportation via the tire trade, in particular to predict its role in causing unexpected dengue outbreaks through vertical transmission of the virus across generations of mosquitoes. We also aimed to identify strategies for regulating the trade in second-hand tires, improving disease control. We created a mathematical model which captures the dynamics of dengue between rural and urban areas, taking into account the movement and storage time of tires, and mosquito diapause. We simulate a series of scenarios in which a mosquito population is introduced to a dengue-free area via movement of tires, either as single or multiple events, increasing the likelihood of a dengue outbreak. A persistent disease state can be induced regardless of whether urban conditions for an outbreak are met, and an existing endemic state can be enhanced by vector input. Finally we assess the potential for regulation of tire processing as a means of reducing the transmission of dengue fever using a specific case study from Puerto Rico. Our work demonstrates the importance of the second-hand tire trade in modulating the spread of dengue fever across regions, in particular its role in introducing dengue to disease-free areas. We propose that reduction of tire storage time and control of their movement can play a crucial role in containing dengue outbreaks.
登革热的地理范围正在扩大，通过其病媒蚊子的入侵传播。二手轮胎贸易被认为是这一过程中的一个因素，因为它们充当了蚊子卵和幼虫的移动储存库。轮胎的区域运输可以在有登革热的农村地区和无病的城市地区之间建立联系，即使在当地控制措施得力的地区也可能引发疫情。在这项工作中，我们试图对通过轮胎贸易传播蚊子的动态进行建模，特别是预测其在通过病毒在几代蚊子之间的垂直传播导致意外登革热疫情中的作用。我们还旨在确定规范二手轮胎贸易、改善疾病控制的策略。我们创建了一个数学模型，该模型考虑了轮胎的移动和储存时间以及蚊子滞育，捕捉了农村和城市地区之间登革热的动态。我们模拟了一系列情景，在这些情景中，蚊子种群通过轮胎的移动被引入无登革热地区，无论是单次还是多次事件，都增加了登革热疫情爆发的可能性。无论是否满足城市爆发条件，都可以诱导出持续的疾病状态，并且病媒输入可以增强现有的地方病状态。最后，我们以波多黎各的一个具体案例研究评估了规范轮胎处理作为减少登革热传播手段的潜力。我们的工作证明了二手轮胎贸易在调节登革热在各地区传播中的重要性，特别是其在将登革热引入无病地区中的作用。我们建议减少轮胎储存时间和控制其移动在控制登革热疫情方面可以发挥关键作用。
