OBJECTIVES

Our aim was to estimate the risk of disease incidence in women with atypical squamous cell of undetermined significance (ASC-US) without histology-proven cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse (CIN2+) by human papillomavirus (HPV) genotype.

METHODS

Between January 2002 and September 2010, incidence of CIN2+ in 2880 women including 2172 with ASC-US and histology-proven negative and 708 with ASC-US with histology-proven CIN1 was investigated. Baseline HR-HPV status was determined by the hybrid capture II assay (HC2) and HR-HPV genotype by the HPV DNA chip test (HDC). Cumulative incidence and hazard ratios were estimated to explore differences between index data and associations with CIN2+.

RESULTS

Of the 2880 women, the HC2 was positive in 1509 women (52.4%) and the HDC was positive in 1563 women (54.3%). The overall agreement between the HDC and HC2 was 97.4%. One hundred ninety (6.6%) patients developed CIN2+. The 5-year cumulative incidence rate of CIN2+ in HPV-16, HPV-31, HPV-52, and HPV-58 were 16.7%, 15.1%, 12.6%, and 12.9%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, being positive in HPV-16 (hazards ratio [HR]=2.431; 95% CI, 1.789-3.332; P<0.01), HPV-31 (HR=2.335; 95% CI, 1.373-3.971; P<0.01), HPV-52 (HR=1.592; 95% CI, 1.031-2.458; P=0.03), and HPV-58 (HR=1.650; 95% CI, 1.132-2.407; P<0.01) were significantly associated with developing CIN2+ compared to being negative for that type.

CONCLUSIONS

Among women with ASC-US, HPV-16, HPV-31, HPV-52, or HPV-58 positive women may need intensified follow-up as they have the highest risk of becoming CIN2+.