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美国预防服务工作组方法更新:在提出建议时了解确定性和净效益的方法。

Update on the Methods of the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force: Methods for Understanding Certainty and Net Benefit When Making Recommendations.

机构信息

Department of Family Medicine and Population Health, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, Virginia.

Center for Evidence and Practice Improvement, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, Rockville, Maryland.

出版信息

Am J Prev Med. 2018 Jan;54(1S1):S11-S18. doi: 10.1016/j.amepre.2017.09.011.


DOI:10.1016/j.amepre.2017.09.011
PMID:29254521
Abstract

Since the 1980s, the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) has developed and used rigorous methods to make evidence-based recommendations about preventive services to promote health and well-being for all Americans. Recommendations are based on the evidence of magnitude of net benefit (benefits minus harms). Expert opinion is not substituted when evidence is lacking. Evidence gaps are common. Few preventive services are supported by high-quality studies that directly and comprehensively determine the overall magnitude of benefits and harms in the same study. When assessing the body of evidence, studies may not have been conducted in primary care settings, studies may not have sufficiently included populations of interest, and long-term outcomes may not have been directly assessed. When direct evidence is not available, the USPSTF uses the methodologies of applicability to determine whether evidence can be generalized to an asymptomatic primary care population; coherence to link bodies of evidence and create an indirect evidence pathway; extrapolation to make inferences across the indirect evidence pathway, extend evidence to populations not specifically studied, consider service delivery intervals, and infer long-term outcomes; and conceptual bounding to set theoretical lower or upper limits for plausible benefits or harms. The USPSTF extends the evidence only so far as to maintain at least moderate certainty that its findings are preserved. This manuscript details with examples of how the USPSTF uses these methods to make recommendations that truly reflect the evidence.

摘要

自 20 世纪 80 年代以来,美国预防服务工作组(USPSTF)一直采用严格的方法制定基于证据的预防服务建议,以促进所有美国人的健康和福祉。建议是基于净效益(收益减去危害)的大小证据。当缺乏证据时,不会用专家意见替代。证据差距很常见。很少有预防服务得到高质量研究的支持,这些研究在同一研究中直接和全面地确定了总体收益和危害的大小。在评估证据体时,研究可能没有在初级保健环境中进行,研究可能没有充分包括感兴趣的人群,并且长期结果可能没有直接评估。当没有直接证据时,USPSTF 使用适用性方法学来确定证据是否可以推广到无症状的初级保健人群;连贯性将证据联系起来并创建间接证据途径;外推法通过间接证据途径进行推断,将证据扩展到未专门研究的人群,考虑服务提供间隔,并推断长期结果;概念性边界法为可能的收益或危害设定理论上的下限或上限。USPSTF 仅将证据扩展到足以保持至少中等程度的确定性,即其发现得到保留。本文详细说明了 USPSTF 如何使用这些方法来制定真正反映证据的建议。

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