Department Labor Market Processes and Institutions, Institute for Employment Research, Regensburger Str. 104, 90478, Nuremberg, Germany.
University of Regensburg, Regensburg, Germany.
Demography. 2018 Apr;55(2):587-615. doi: 10.1007/s13524-018-0654-y.
Exploiting unique German administrative data, we estimate the association between an expansion in maternity leave duration from two to six months in 1979 and mothers' postbirth long-term sickness absence over a period of three decades after childbirth. Adopting a difference-in-difference approach, we first assess the reform's labor market effects and, subsequently, prebirth and postbirth maternal long-term sickness absence, accounting for the potential role of the reform in mothers' selection into employment. Consistent with previous research, our estimates show that the leave extension caused mothers to significantly delay their return to work within the first year after childbirth. We then provide difference-in-difference estimates for the number and length of spells of long-term sickness absence among returned mothers. Our findings suggest that among those returned, mothers subject to the leave extension exhibit a higher incidence of long-term sickness absence compared with mothers who gave birth before the reform. This also holds true after we control for observable differences in prebirth illness histories. At the same time, we find no pronounced effects on mothers' medium-run labor market attachment following the short-run delay in return to work, which might rationalize a negative causal health effect. Breaking down the results by mothers' prebirth health status suggests that the higher incidence of long-term sickness absence among mothers subject to the reform may be explained by the fact that the reform facilitated the reentry of a negative health selection into the labor market.
利用独特的德国行政数据,我们估计了 1979 年将产假从两个月延长至六个月与产后三十年母亲长期病假之间的关联。采用双重差分法,我们首先评估了改革对劳动力市场的影响,随后评估了产前和产后母亲长期病假的情况,并考虑了改革对母亲就业选择的潜在作用。与先前的研究一致,我们的估计表明,休假延长导致母亲在产后第一年显著延迟了重返工作岗位的时间。然后,我们针对返回工作岗位的母亲的长期病假的数量和持续时间提供了双重差分估计。我们的研究结果表明,与改革前分娩的母亲相比,接受休假延长的母亲长期病假的发生率更高。在控制了产前疾病史的可观察差异后,这一结果仍然成立。同时,我们发现,在短期内重返工作岗位的延迟之后,母亲的中期劳动力市场联系并没有明显受到影响,这可能证明了负面的因果健康影响是合理的。按母亲产前健康状况细分结果表明,改革后母亲长期病假发生率较高的原因可能是改革促进了负面健康选择重新进入劳动力市场。