CHA2DS2-VASc score for prediction of ischemic stroke in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus without atrial fibrillation.

Objective We conducted this study to assess the role of CHA2DS2-VASc score in predicting ischemic stroke among systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients without atrial fibrillation (AF). Methods We selected the SLE patients from the Registry of Catastrophic Illnesses Patient Database in Taiwan. We excluded the SLE patients with AF or atrial flutter. The patients were followed up until the occurrence of ischemic stroke, censored for death or withdrawal from the dataset, or the end of follow-up. Cox models were performed to obtain the hazard ratios (HRs) and the 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of ischemic stroke associated with the CHA2DS2-VASc score. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was generated to evaluate the predictive ability of CHA2DS2-VASc score for ischemic stroke in SLE patients without AF. Results A total of 11,962 study participants were included in this study. The incidence of ischemic stroke increased from 4.00 per 1000 person-years (PYs) for patients with a CHA2DS2-VASc score of 0 to 87.4 per 1000 PYs for those with a CHA2DS2-VASc score of ≧6. Moreover, patients with a CHA2DS2-VASc score of ≧2 were 3.98-fold (95% CI 3.15-5.04) more likely to develop ischemic stroke than those with a CHA2DS2-VASc score of <2 (14.0 vs. 2.99 per 1000 PYs). ROC curve analysis of the CHA2DS2-VASc score demonstrated a moderate discrimination power for ischemic stroke development with a c-statistic of 0.65(95% CI 0.62-0.69). Conclusions We found that a CHA2DS2-VASc score greater than or equal to 2 in SLE patients without AF is associated with a significantly higher rate of ischemic stroke.