Use of depth of response to predict progression-free survival in relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma: Evaluation of results from 102 clinical trials.

Progression-free survival (PFS) is the standard endpoint for demonstration of clinical effectiveness of novel therapies in relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM). However, the long evaluation times for PFS limits its usefulness in the development of new therapies. Therefore, the objective of this analysis was to determine the relationship between response rates and median PFS in RRMM. A database was systematically developed from 268 identified RRMM trials reported from 1999 to 2016. Evaluated covariates for the relationship between response rates and PFS included age, sex, drug class(es), and number of drug classes. One-hundred two (102) trials involving 136 cohorts were included in the meta-analysis, representing 13 322 patients in total. Regression analysis using response rates and median PFS indicated that the correlation between very good partial response (VGPR) or better and median PFS was higher (R  = 0.63) than the separately analyzed correlations between clinical benefit, overall response, or complete response rate and median PFS (R  = 0.47 - 0.52). Subsequent covariate analysis revealed that treatment with an immunomodulatory imide drug (IMiD) further improved the relationship (R  = 0.69), with a longer median PFS at a given VGPR or better rate when at least 1 drug treatment was an IMiD. Number of drug classes was not found to alter this relationship. In conclusion, VGPR or better rate can be used to predict the median PFS, with adjustment for the additional PFS provided by an IMiD.