Simulation-based assessment of the impact of fertiliser and herbicide application on freshwater ecosystems at the Three Gorges Reservoir in China.

Dams have profound impacts on river ecosystems, amongst them inundation of land, altered dynamics of the water body or uprising reservoir backwaters influencing tributary or upstream river sections. Along the outstandingly ecologically important Yangtze River in China, the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) is the largest project, covering an area of 1080 km. From the beginning, the dam-project came in for criticism on increasing environmental risks due to sub-merging former industrial and urban areas. We simulated dynamics of biotic and abiotic components of the TGR ecosystem (trophic guilds of aquatic organisms, hydrodynamics, nutrients), as well as the behaviour of the herbicidal substance propanil and its metabolites 3,4-Dichloroaniline (DCA) and 3,3',4,4'-tetrachloroazoxybenzene (TCAB). A modelling environment, provided by the AQUATOX software, was adapted to the specific situation at a tributary reach to the Yangtze river 'Daning River'. As the simulated food web contained several interconnected trophic levels, a significant biomagnification of metabolites was demonstrated by our simulation studies. In particular, newly emerging stagnant downstream sections of tributaries exhibited high probabilities due to accumulating pesticides from upstream sources. The common problem of algal blooms in the TGR-region was addressed by dose-response simulation experiments with essential nutrients. Impacts on structure and abundance of populations of aquatic organisms were shown. However, even high nutrient loads resulted in only slight changes of densities of organisms of all trophic levels. Nevertheless, the probabilities for large-scale algal blooms affecting drinking water quality were considered low because of high flow velocities and discharge rates towards the Yangtze River. We see high potential of simulation-based assessments that provide information for risk managers dealing with whole catchment areas. They are put in the position to differentiate the magnitude of impacts of various factors and decide about the most effective remediation measures.