Li Zhe, Ding Xin
Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Western University, London, Ontario.
Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Fuwai Hospital, Beijing, China.
Clin Cardiol. 2018 Aug;41(8):1103-1110. doi: 10.1002/clc.23021. Epub 2018 Aug 17.
Emerging evidence demonstrates that frailty measures can predict adverse outcomes after cardiac procedures. Our objectives were to examine whether the inclusion of frailty measures adds incremental predictive value to existing surgical risk prediction models in patients undergoing cardiac surgery and to evaluate the reporting and methods of studies that investigated the prediction of frailty measures in cardiology. The inclusion of frailty measures adds incremental predictive value on existing perioperative risk-scoring systems. We systematically searched the EMBASE, MEDLINE, and Web of Science databases for relevant studies. Studies were included according to predefined inclusion criteria. The quality of included studies was appraised using the QUADAS-2 tool. Data were extracted and synthesized according to predefined methods. Twelve studies were included in the analysis. Included studies demonstrated the incremental predictive value of frailty measures on existing surgical risk models for mortality, but the predictive value of frailty measures alone was not consistent across literature. Few studies that investigated the predictive ability of frailty measures reported all important model performance measures. When comparing the predictive value of frailty measures with existing models, few studies reported if the frailty measurement was separately performed from the existing perioperative risk assessment. The addition of frailty measures to the existing perioperative risk models improved the prediction performance for mortality, but the incorporation of frailty assessment into perioperative risk assessment requires further evidence before making health policy recommendations.
新出现的证据表明,衰弱指标可预测心脏手术后的不良结局。我们的目标是研究在接受心脏手术的患者中,纳入衰弱指标是否能为现有的手术风险预测模型增加额外的预测价值,并评估研究心脏病中衰弱指标预测情况的研究报告及方法。纳入衰弱指标能为现有的围手术期风险评分系统增加额外的预测价值。我们系统检索了EMBASE、MEDLINE和科学网数据库中的相关研究。根据预先定义的纳入标准纳入研究。使用QUADAS - 2工具评估纳入研究的质量。按照预先定义的方法提取和综合数据。分析纳入了12项研究。纳入的研究表明衰弱指标对现有手术风险模型的死亡率有额外的预测价值,但衰弱指标单独的预测价值在文献中并不一致。很少有研究在调查衰弱指标的预测能力时报告了所有重要模型性能指标。在比较衰弱指标与现有模型的预测价值时,很少有研究报告衰弱指标测量是否与现有的围手术期风险评估分开进行。在现有围手术期风险模型中加入衰弱指标可提高死亡率的预测性能,但在提出卫生政策建议之前,将衰弱评估纳入围手术期风险评估还需要进一步的证据。