Imran Jonathan B, Renteria Oswaldo, Ruiz Maria, Pham Thai H, Mokdad Ali A, Huerta Sergio
Am Surg. 2018 Jun 1;84(6):1039-1042.
The Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP) risk calculator has been validated for several operations but has not been assessed specifically for cholecystectomy. Our aim was to externally validate the VASQIP calculator's accuracy in predicting 30-day morbidity and mortality (M&M) for patients undergoing cholecystectomy. A retrospective review of patients undergoing cholecystectomy at the North Texas Veterans Affairs hospital was performed. The VASQIP risk calculator was used to determine predicted 30-day M&M, which was compared with actual M&M. The predictive accuracy of the Veterans Affairs risk calculator was assessed using the C-statistic and a graphical assessment of a locally weighted least squares regression smoother. Overall, 848 patients were included in the study. Actual M&M were 6.3 and 0.94 per cent, respectively, whereas predicted M&M were 6.0 and 0.54 per cent. The C-statistic was 0.75 for morbidity and 0.78 for mortality. In our analysis, the VASQIP risk calculator reasonably predicted 30-day M&M.
退伍军人事务部外科质量改进计划（VASQIP）风险计算器已在多种手术中得到验证，但尚未针对胆囊切除术进行专门评估。我们的目的是对外验证VASQIP计算器在预测胆囊切除患者30天发病率和死亡率（M&M）方面的准确性。对在北德克萨斯退伍军人事务医院接受胆囊切除术的患者进行了回顾性研究。使用VASQIP风险计算器确定预测的30天M&M，并与实际M&M进行比较。使用C统计量和局部加权最小二乘回归平滑器的图形评估来评估退伍军人事务风险计算器的预测准确性。总体而言，848名患者纳入了研究。实际发病率和死亡率分别为6.3%和0.94%，而预测发病率和死亡率分别为6.0%和0.54%。发病率的C统计量为0.75，死亡率的C统计量为0.78。在我们的分析中，VASQIP风险计算器合理地预测了30天M&M。
