Faculty of Health Sciences, Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Faculty of Health Sciences, Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Environ Int. 2018 Dec;121(Pt 1):973-980. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2018.09.050. Epub 2018 Oct 23.
Health impact assessment (HIA) of exposure to air pollution is commonly based on city level (fine) particle concentration and may underestimate health consequences of changing local traffic. Exposure to traffic-related air pollution can be assessed at a high resolution by modelling levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO), which together with ultrafine particles mainly originate from diesel-powered vehicles in urban areas. The purpose of this study was to estimate the health benefits of reduced exposure to vehicle emissions assessed as NO at the residence among the citizens of Copenhagen Municipality, Denmark.
We utilized residential NO concentrations modelled by use of chemistry transport models to calculate contributions from emission sources to air pollution. The DYNAMO-HIA model was applied to the population of Copenhagen Municipality by using NO concentration estimates combined with demographic data and data from nationwide registers on incidence and prevalence of selected diseases, cause specific mortality, and total mortality of the population of Copenhagen. We used exposure-response functions linking NO concentration estimates at the residential address with the risk of diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and respiratory diseases derived from a large Danish cohort study with the majority of subjects residing in Copenhagen between 1971 and 2010. Different scenarios were modelled to estimate the dynamic impact of NO exposure on related diseases and the potential health benefits of lowering the NO level in the Copenhagen Municipality.
The annual mean NO concentration was 19.6 μg/m and for 70% of the population the range of exposure was between 15 and 21 μg/m. If NO exposure was reduced to the annual mean rural level of 6 μg/m, life expectancy in 2040 would increase by one year. The greatest gain in disease-free life expectancy would be lifetime without ischemic heart disease (1.4 years), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1.5 years for men and 1.6 years for women), and asthma (1.3 years for men and 1.5 years for women). Lowering NO exposure by 20% would increase disease-free life expectancy for the different diseases by 0.3-0.5 years. Using gender specific relative risks affected the results.
Reducing the NO exposure by controlling traffic-related air pollution reduces the occurrence of some of the most prevalent chronic diseases and increases life expectancy. Such health benefits can be quantified by DYNAMO-HIA in a high resolution exposure modelling. This paper demonstrates how traffic planners can assess health benefits from reduced levels of traffic-related air pollution.
空气污染的健康影响评估（HIA）通常基于城市水平（细）颗粒物浓度，并且可能低估了当地交通变化对健康的影响。通过建模二氧化氮（NO）水平，可以以高分辨率评估与交通相关的空气污染暴露情况，NO 与超细颗粒主要源自城市地区的柴油动力车辆。本研究的目的是评估丹麦哥本哈根市居民居住地车辆排放减少导致的 NO 暴露降低的健康益处。
我们利用化学输送模型计算排放源对空气污染的贡献，使用这些模型来计算住宅中的氮氧化物（NO）浓度，从而估算居民的氮氧化物暴露水平。我们使用 DYNAMO-HIA 模型，将哥本哈根市的人口与全国范围内关于特定疾病发病率和患病率、特定病因死亡率以及哥本哈根市人口总死亡率的登记数据相结合，利用这些数据对模型进行了应用。我们使用暴露-反应函数将居住地址的 NO 浓度估计值与从丹麦大型队列研究中得出的糖尿病、心血管疾病和呼吸系统疾病风险联系起来，该研究的大多数研究对象居住在 1971 年至 2010 年间的哥本哈根市。我们还对不同的场景进行了建模，以评估 NO 暴露对相关疾病的动态影响，以及降低哥本哈根市的 NO 水平所带来的潜在健康益处。
年平均 NO 浓度为 19.6μg/m，70%的人群的暴露范围在 15 到 21μg/m 之间。如果将 NO 暴露降低到 2040 年农村地区的年平均水平 6μg/m，预期寿命将增加 1 年。在无缺血性心脏病（男性 1.4 年，女性 1.5 年）、慢性阻塞性肺疾病（男性 1.5 年，女性 1.6 年）和哮喘（男性 1.3 年，女性 1.5 年）方面，无疾病预期寿命的最大获益将是终生无疾病。降低 20%的 NO 暴露将使不同疾病的无疾病预期寿命增加 0.3-0.5 年。使用特定性别相对风险会影响结果。
通过控制与交通相关的空气污染来降低 NO 暴露，可以减少一些最常见的慢性疾病的发生，提高预期寿命。通过高分辨率的暴露建模，DYNAMO-HIA 可以量化这种健康益处。本文演示了交通规划者如何评估减少与交通相关的空气污染带来的健康益处。
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