DU Yao Dong, Shen Ping, Wang Hua, Tang Xiang Ru, Zhao Hua
Climate Center of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou 510640, China.
Nanling-mountains Eco-meteorological Center, Renhua 512300, Guangdong, China.
Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2018 Dec;29(12):4013-4021. doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.201812.041.
Based on the dataset of air temperature from 86 stations during 1961 to 2016, and DEM data derived from 1:250000 topographic maps, we analyzed the spatial-temporal changes of key climatic factors (safe period for double cropping rice, ≥10 ℃ active accumulated temperature) using the methods of linear regression, accumulative anomaly, and inverse distance weighted interpolation. The impacts of climate change on climatic division for double cropping rice was studied by combining with the changes of key climate factors for the periods of 1961-1990, 1971-2000, 1981-2010, before (1961-1997) and after (1998-2016) climatic mutation. The results showed that spatial distributions of safe period for double cropping rice and ≥10 ℃ active accumulated temperature were different from place to place in Guangdong. Generally, they were more or higher in south than in north part, in plain than in mountain regions. Under the background of global warming, the safe period for double cropping rice and ≥10 ℃ active accumulated tempera-ture showed a significantly increasing trend with the rate of 1.7 d and 43 ℃·d per decade, respectively. All climatic factor had mutation in the year of 1997. According to the climatic conditions of various maturing rice growth and development, climatic zoning for double cropping rice in Guangdong could be divided into three regions: early maturity with early maturity, early maturity with late maturity, late maturity with late maturity. Those regions were distributed in middle-subtropics of northern Guangdong, south-subtropics of middle Guangdong, and north-tropics of southern Guangdong, respectively. Due to the climate change, the area of late maturity with late maturity significantly increased, the area of early maturity with late maturity significantly decreased, and the area of early maturity with early maturity showed no significant change. Relative to that in 1961-1990, the areas of late maturity with late maturity in 1971-2000 and 1981-2010 increased 1.22×10 hm and 2.56×10 hm, respectively, but the area of early maturity with late maturity decreased 1.13×10 hm and 2.56×10 hm, respectively. The area of late maturity with late maturity was more than doubled, but that of early maturity with late maturity decreased about a half after 1997 than that before in Guangdong.
基于1961—2016年86个站点的气温数据集以及从1∶250000地形图中获取的数字高程模型（DEM）数据，运用线性回归、累积距平、反距离权重插值等方法，分析了关键气候要素（双季稻安全生长期、≥10℃活动积温）的时空变化特征。结合1961—1990年、1971—2000年、1981—2010年以及气候突变前后（1961—1997年和1998—2016年）关键气候要素的变化，研究气候变化对双季稻气候区划的影响。结果表明，广东省双季稻安全生长期和≥10℃活动积温的空间分布存在地域差异，总体上南部多于或高于北部，平原多于山区。在全球气候变暖背景下，双季稻安全生长期和≥１０℃活动积温呈显著增加趋势，增速分别为每10年1.7天和43℃·天。所有气候要素均在1997年发生突变。根据水稻各生育期生长发育的气候条件，广东省双季稻气候区划可分为早熟早稻区、早熟晚稻区、晚熟晚稻区，分别分布在粤北中亚热带、粤中南亚热带、粤南北热带。由于气候变化，晚熟晚稻区面积显著增加，早熟晚稻区面积显著减少，早熟早稻区面积变化不显著。与1961—1990年相比，1971—2000年和1981—2010年晚熟晚稻区面积分别增加1.22×10 hm和2.56×10 hm，而早熟晚稻区面积分别减少1.13×10 hm和2.56×10 hm。1997年后，广东省晚熟晚稻区面积增加了1倍多，早熟晚稻区面积减少了近一半。
