School of Oceanographic Studies, Jadavpur University, Kolkata 700032, India.
School of Oceanographic Studies, Jadavpur University, Kolkata 700032, India.
Sci Total Environ. 2019 May 10;664:713-723. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.390. Epub 2019 Feb 5.
Anthropogenic climate change is considered as one of the greatest environmental, social and economic threats to the future world. Low lying deltas all over the world are increasingly subjected to multidimensional risk of sea level rise, cyclone, surges and salinisation. The life and livelihood of the communities of such deltas are endangered due to climate change acting as risk multiplier. The Mahanadi delta in the state of Odisha, India is one of the such populous deltas with estimated 8 million population in 2011 with a density of 613 persons/km. Over the past decades, it experienced major climatic threats in the form of cyclone, surge inundation and flooding with variable intensities and impacts along and across the coast. The present research assessed the risk of climatic extreme events and their variability in the delta, with an intention of mitigation or adaptation to possible impacts in specific region. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data and daily rainfall data were used to extract flood inundation. Tropical Cyclone Risk Model (TCRM) along with surge decay function was used to estimate cyclonic wind speed and surge inundation and risk indices were computed using fuzzy logic based approach. The result shows that in the coastal districts, risk of severe cyclones rank above the heavy floods. Agriculture, the main livelihood of these districts (71%) is impacted adversely making the delta community vulnerable to such extreme events. Kendrapara followed by Bhadrak and Jagasinghpur districts appear to be most risk prone segment in the delta making the northern part comparatively more risk prone where focused mitigation and adaptation actions are needed.
人为气候变化被认为是对未来世界的最大环境、社会和经济威胁之一。世界各地的低地三角洲越来越多地受到海平面上升、气旋、浪潮和盐渍化的多维风险的影响。由于气候变化作为风险倍增器，这些三角洲的社区的生命和生计受到了威胁。印度奥里萨邦的马哈纳迪三角洲就是这样一个人口众多的三角洲之一，2011 年估计有 800 万人口，密度为 613 人/平方公里。在过去的几十年里，它经历了气旋、浪潮泛滥和洪水等重大气候威胁，其强度和影响沿和跨海岸而变化。本研究评估了三角洲气候极端事件及其变化的风险，旨在减轻或适应特定地区可能的影响。合成孔径雷达（SAR）数据和日降雨量数据用于提取洪水泛滥。热带气旋风险模型（TCRM）结合了浪潮衰减函数，用于估计气旋风速和浪潮泛滥，使用基于模糊逻辑的方法计算风险指数。结果表明，在沿海地区，严重气旋的风险等级高于强洪水。农业是这些地区（71%）的主要生计，受到不利影响，使三角洲社区容易受到此类极端事件的影响。肯德拉帕拉紧随其后的是巴德拉和贾加辛哈布尔区，似乎是三角洲中最容易受到风险影响的地区，使北部地区相对更容易受到风险影响，需要在那里采取有针对性的缓解和适应行动。
