Active Surveillance of Small (< 4 cm) Bosniak Category 2F, 3, and 4 Renal Lesions: What Happens on Imaging Follow-Up?

The purpose of this study was to determine the percentage of small (< 4 cm) Bosniak category 2F, 3, and 4 lesions that regress during active surveillance. In this retrospective study, a hospital database was searched from January 1, 2005, through September 9, 2017, for small (< 4 cm) Bosniak category 2F, 3, and 4 lesions studied with initial and follow-up unenhanced and contrast-enhanced CT or MRI. Prospective Bosniak categories were recorded. Two blinded radiologists retrospectively reassigned Bosniak categories to the initial and last follow-up studies. Interreader variability was analyzed. Rates of stability, regression, and progression were calculated and stratified by size. Logistic regression was used to assess the effects of lesion size, lesion growth, and duration of follow-up on the change in Bosniak categories. The search identified 123 patients (85 men, 38 women) with 138 renal lesions (according to the blinded readings, 83 Bosniak category 2F, 37 category 3, and 18 category 4) and followed for 1-12.3 years (median, 2.7 years). Fifty-one percent (70/138) of the lesions were smaller than 2 cm. Eighty-eight percent (73/83) of category 2F lesions were downgraded or remained stable. Forty-five percent (25/55) of category 3 or 4 lesions were downgraded to 2F or lower. Kappa values were 0.94 between the two readers and 0.72-0.76 between the readers and the prospective Bosniak categories. There was no association between initial size, change in size, or duration of follow-up and change in Bosniak category. Approximately one-half of small (< 4 cm) Bosniak category 3 and 4 cystic renal lesions were downgraded, and the majority (88%) of small Bosniak category 2F lesions regressed or remained stable during active surveillance. Therefore, small size should be a consideration for conservative management.