BACKGROUND: Tenofovir-diphosphate (TFV-DP) in dried blood spots (DBS) is an objective long-term adherence measure, but data are limited on its ability to predict virologic suppression (VS) in people on antiretroviral (ARV) treatment. There are also no data comparing DBS TFV-DP with plasma ARV concentrations as predictors of VS. METHODS: Women who were on a first-line regimen of tenofovir, emtricitabine, and efavirenz (EFV) were enrolled in a cross-sectional study. Plasma EFV and tenofovir (TFV), DBS TFV-DP assays, and 30-day self-reported adherence were evaluated as predictors of VS (<50 copies/mL) with the area under the curve of receiver operating characteristics and logistic regression. RESULTS: We enrolled 137 women; mean age of 33 years; median 4 years on antiretroviral therapy; 88 (64%) had VS. In receiver operating characteristics analyses: DBS TFV-DP [0.926 (95% CI: 0.876 to 0.976)] had a higher area under the curve than plasma TFV [0.864 (0.797 to 0.932); P = 0.006], whereas plasma EFV [0.903 (0.839-0.967)] was not significantly different from DBS TFV-DP (P = 0.138) or plasma TFV (P = 0.140); all ARV assays performed better than self-report. The association of TFV-DP in DBS with VS strengthened with increasing concentrations [reference <350 fmol/punch: 350-699 fmol/punch aOR 37 (8-178); 700-1249 fmol/punch aOR 47 (13-175); ≥1250 fmol/punch aOR 175 (20-1539)]. "White coat adherence" (defined as DBS TFV-DP <350 fmol/punch with detectable plasma TFV) was only detected in 4 women. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma EFV, TFV, and DBS TFV-DP were all strong predictors of VS. EFV or TFV assays have potential for development as point-of-care assays for use as objective adherence measures in resource-limited settings.