Herzschuh Ulrike, Cao Xianyong, Laepple Thomas, Dallmeyer Anne, Telford Richard J, Ni Jian, Chen Fahu, Kong Zhaochen, Liu Guangxiu, Liu Kam-Biu, Liu Xingqi, Stebich Martina, Tang Lingyu, Tian Fang, Wang Yongbo, Wischnewski Juliane, Xu Qinghai, Yan Shun, Yang Zhenjing, Yu Ge, Zhang Yun, Zhao Yan, Zheng Zhuo
Polar Terrestrial Environmental Systems, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in the Helmholtz Association, Potsdam, 14473, Germany.
Institute of Environmental Sciences and Geography, University Potsdam, Potsdam, 14476, Germany.
Nat Commun. 2019 May 30;10(1):2376. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-09866-8.
Proxy-based reconstructions and modeling of Holocene spatiotemporal precipitation patterns for China and Mongolia have hitherto yielded contradictory results indicating that the basic mechanisms behind the East Asian Summer Monsoon and its interaction with the westerly jet stream remain poorly understood. We present quantitative reconstructions of Holocene precipitation derived from 101 fossil pollen records and analyse them with the help of a minimal empirical model. We show that the westerly jet-stream axis shifted gradually southward and became less tilted since the middle Holocene. This was tracked by the summer monsoon rain band resulting in an early-Holocene precipitation maximum over most of western China, a mid-Holocene maximum in north-central and northeastern China, and a late-Holocene maximum in southeastern China. Our results suggest that a correct simulation of the orientation and position of the westerly jet stream is crucial to the reliable prediction of precipitation patterns in China and Mongolia.
基于代理的中国和蒙古全新世时空降水模式重建与模拟，迄今得出了相互矛盾的结果，这表明东亚夏季风背后的基本机制及其与西风急流的相互作用仍未得到充分理解。我们展示了从101个化石花粉记录中得出的全新世降水定量重建结果，并借助一个最小经验模型对其进行分析。我们发现，自全新世中期以来，西风急流轴逐渐向南移动且倾斜度减小。夏季风降雨带随之移动，导致中国西部大部分地区在全新世早期降水最多，中国中北部和东北部在全新世中期降水最多，而中国东南部在全新世晚期降水最多。我们的结果表明，正确模拟西风急流的方向和位置对于可靠预测中国和蒙古的降水模式至关重要。
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