Department of Business and Economics, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.
Danish Institute for Advanced Study (D-IAS), Odense, Denmark.
Demography. 2019 Aug;56(4):1557-1572. doi: 10.1007/s13524-019-00787-1.
The identification of parity effects on the hazard of a next birth in cross-family data requires accounting for heterogeneity in fecundity across couples. In a previously published article, Cinnirella et al. Demography, 54, 413-436 (2017), we stratified duration models at the maternal level for this purpose and found that the hazard of a next birth decreases with rising parity in historical England. Clark and Cummins Demography, 56 (2019) took issue with this finding, claiming that the result is a statistical artifact caused by stratification at the maternal level. This reply documents that our previous finding is robust to addressing Clark and Cummins' critique.
在跨家庭数据中识别生育力对下一胎出生风险的影响,需要考虑到夫妻之间生育力的异质性。在之前发表的一篇文章中,Cinnirella 等人在《人口学》杂志,54 卷,第 413-436 页(2017 年),为此目的在母体水平上对持续时间模型进行了分层,发现下一胎出生的风险随着历史上英国生育力的上升而降低。Clark 和 Cummins 在《人口学》杂志,56 卷(2019 年)中对这一发现提出了质疑,声称这一结果是由于母体水平分层造成的统计假象。这一回复证明了我们之前的发现对解决 Clark 和 Cummins 的批评是稳健的。