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到达单一牛奶喂养犊牛场时的健康状况对犊牛购买价格平衡点的影响。

Effect of health status upon arrival at a single milk-fed veal facility on breakeven purchase price of calves.

机构信息

Department of Population Medicine, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada N1G 2W1.

Elanco Animal Health, Greenfield, IN 46140.

出版信息

J Dairy Sci. 2019 Sep;102(9):8441-8453. doi: 10.3168/jds.2018-15587. Epub 2019 Jul 3.

Abstract

Male calves are purchased from the dairy industry in North America to produce red meat. The price paid for male calves varies widely, and it is unclear which variables influence the price paid for each calf. The objective of this study was to assess how the health traits of calves at the time of arrival and demographic variables affect the breakeven purchase price of a male calf entering the veal industry. A financial model was constructed using the prevalence of health abnormalities, weight at arrival, source of the calf, number of days in the barn, base carcass price, days to mortality, feed costs, season at arrival, interest rate, housing location, carcass dressing percentage, and costs associated with housing, labor, utilities, trucking, and health to calculate the breakeven purchase price and an estimate of profit. Sensitivity analysis was conducted using health variables measured at arrival and demographic variables, including season at arrival and housing location, to identify the factors with the largest impact on the predicted average daily gain, early and late mortality risk, breakeven purchase price, and profit. At the baseline inputs, the average calculated profit was -$5.36 per calf and it was most sensitive to the location of housing where calves were fed and the body weight of the arriving calf. The mortality risk in the first 21 d after arrival (early) was calculated to be 2.2%, whereas the risk of mortality after 21 d (late) was 3.7%. The risks of early and late mortality were most sensitive to the level of dehydration measured at arrival and the season at arrival for the purchased calves, respectively. The calculated average daily gain was 1.12 kg/d and it was most sensitive to housing location. The breakeven purchase price was calculated to be $242.49 per calf, which was most sensitive to the housing location where the calves were fed. The results of this analysis demonstrate that veal producers need to consider many variables before purchasing calves. In addition to overall market conditions, veal producers should factor health characteristics and the expected performance of the calves they purchase into what they are willing to pay for them.

摘要

雄性小牛从北美奶业购买,用于生产红肉。购买雄性小牛的价格差异很大,目前尚不清楚哪些变量会影响每头小牛的价格。本研究旨在评估小牛到达时的健康特征和人口统计学变量如何影响进入小牛肉行业的雄性小牛的盈亏平衡购买价格。使用健康异常的流行率、到达时的体重、小牛的来源、在畜舍中的天数、基础胴体价格、死亡天数、饲料成本、到达季节、利率、饲养地点、胴体剥皮率以及与饲养、劳动力、水电费、运输和健康相关的成本来构建财务模型,以计算盈亏平衡购买价格和利润估算。使用到达时测量的健康变量和人口统计学变量(包括到达季节和饲养地点)进行敏感性分析,以确定对预测平均日增重、早期和晚期死亡率风险、盈亏平衡购买价格和利润影响最大的因素。在基线输入下,计算出的平均利润为每头小牛-5.36 美元,最敏感的因素是饲养小牛的地点和到达小牛的体重。到达后 21 天内(早期)的死亡率风险估计为 2.2%,而 21 天后(晚期)的死亡率风险为 3.7%。早期和晚期死亡率的风险分别对到达时测量的脱水程度和购买小牛的到达季节最为敏感。计算出的平均日增重为 1.12 公斤/天,最敏感的因素是饲养地点。盈亏平衡购买价格为每头小牛 242.49 美元,最敏感的因素是饲养小牛的地点。本分析的结果表明,小牛肉生产者在购买小牛之前需要考虑许多变量。除了整体市场条件外,小牛肉生产者还应将他们购买的小牛的健康特征和预期表现纳入他们愿意为小牛支付的价格中。

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