巴西东南部圣保罗州股骨骨折的季节性变化。
Seasonal variation of femoral fractures in the state of São Paulo, Southeast Brazil.
作者信息
Souza Mônica Marin de, Souza Eniuce Menezes de, Nunes Altacílio Aparecido, Martinez Edson Zangiacomi
机构信息
Universidade Estadual de Maringá. Maringá, PR, Brasil.
Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto. Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brasil.
出版信息
Rev Saude Publica. 2019 Aug 15;53:55. doi: 10.11606/s1518-8787.2019053001051.
OBJECTIVE
To examine the effect of seasonality on femoral fracture incidence among people residing in the state of São Paulo, Brazil.
METHODS
Ecological study based on a consecutive series of 216,348 reports of hospital admissions caused by femoral fractures. A Bayesian statistical model was used for time series analysis, considering the monthly average number of events of femoral fractures per day as a dependent variable.
RESULTS
Among the female population, significant seasonal effects were observed only for older women, aged 60 years or more. Among younger men (aged less than 20 years) there is not a clear seasonal effect, but among the other age groups there seems to exist a higher number of cases of femoral fractures during the coldest months of the year.
CONCLUSIONS
In general, more cases of fractures occur during the coldest months of the year; however, men and women have different patterns of incidence according to each age group.
目的
研究季节性对居住在巴西圣保罗州人群股骨骨折发病率的影响。
方法
基于一系列连续的216348例因股骨骨折导致的住院报告进行生态学研究。采用贝叶斯统计模型进行时间序列分析，将每日股骨骨折事件的月平均数量作为因变量。
结果
在女性人群中，仅60岁及以上老年女性存在显著的季节效应。在年轻男性（年龄小于20岁）中，没有明显的季节效应，但在其他年龄组中，一年中最冷的月份似乎股骨骨折病例数更多。
结论
总体而言，一年中最冷的月份骨折病例更多；然而，男性和女性在各年龄组中的发病率模式不同。
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