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使用机器学习在有自杀意念者中检测自杀未遂者。

Detection of Suicide Attempters among Suicide Ideators Using Machine Learning.

作者信息

Ryu Seunghyong, Lee Hyeongrae, Lee Dong-Kyun, Kim Sung-Wan, Kim Chul-Eung

机构信息

Department of Mental Health Research, National Center for Mental Health, Seoul, Republic of Korea.

Department of Psychiatry, Chonnam National University Medical School, Gwangju, Republic of Korea.

出版信息

Psychiatry Investig. 2019 Aug;16(8):588-593. doi: 10.30773/pi.2019.06.19. Epub 2019 Aug 21.


DOI:10.30773/pi.2019.06.19
PMID:31446686
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6710424/
Abstract

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to develop predictive models to identify suicide attempters among individuals with suicide ideation using a machine learning algorithm. METHODS: Among 35,116 individuals aged over 19 years from the Korea National Health & Nutrition Examination Survey, we selected 5,773 subjects who reported experiencing suicide ideation and had answered a survey question about suicide attempts. Then, we performed resampling with the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling TEchnique (SMOTE) to obtain data corresponding to 1,324 suicide attempters and 1,330 non-suicide attempters. We randomly assigned the samples to a training set (n=1,858) and a test set (n=796). In the training set, random forest models were trained with features selected through recursive feature elimination with 10-fold cross validation. Subsequently, the fitted model was used to predict suicide attempters in the test set. RESULTS: In the test set, the prediction model achieved very good performance [area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)=0.947] with an accuracy of 88.9%. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that a machine learning approach can enable the prediction of individuals at high risk of suicide through the integrated analysis of various suicide risk factors.

摘要

目的:我们旨在开发预测模型,使用机器学习算法在有自杀意念的个体中识别自杀未遂者。 方法:在韩国国家健康与营养检查调查的35116名19岁以上个体中,我们选择了5773名报告有自杀意念且回答了关于自杀未遂调查问题的受试者。然后,我们使用合成少数过采样技术(SMOTE)进行重采样,以获得对应于1324名自杀未遂者和1330名非自杀未遂者的数据。我们将样本随机分配到训练集(n = 1858)和测试集(n = 796)。在训练集中,使用通过10折交叉验证的递归特征消除选择的特征训练随机森林模型。随后,使用拟合模型预测测试集中的自杀未遂者。 结果:在测试集中,预测模型表现出非常好的性能[受试者操作特征曲线下面积(AUC)= 0.947],准确率为88.9%。 结论:我们的结果表明,机器学习方法可以通过对各种自杀风险因素的综合分析,实现对高自杀风险个体的预测。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f30a/6710424/c6b616b4a739/pi-2019-06-19f3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f30a/6710424/ed2d60e0d9c8/pi-2019-06-19f1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f30a/6710424/eacb82bdd6ff/pi-2019-06-19f2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f30a/6710424/c6b616b4a739/pi-2019-06-19f3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f30a/6710424/ed2d60e0d9c8/pi-2019-06-19f1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f30a/6710424/eacb82bdd6ff/pi-2019-06-19f2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f30a/6710424/c6b616b4a739/pi-2019-06-19f3.jpg

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引用本文的文献

[1]
Predictive Performance of Machine Learning for Suicide in Adolescents: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

J Med Internet Res. 2025-6-16

[2]
Exploring the Role of First-Person Singular Pronouns in Detecting Suicidal Ideation: A Machine Learning Analysis of Clinical Transcripts.

Behav Sci (Basel). 2024-3-11

[3]
The use of machine learning on administrative and survey data to predict suicidal thoughts and behaviors: a systematic review.

Front Psychiatry. 2024-3-4

[4]
Analysis and evaluation of explainable artificial intelligence on suicide risk assessment.

Sci Rep. 2024-3-14

[5]
College students' screening early warning factors in identification of suicide risk.

Front Genet. 2022-11-10

[6]
Prediction model for suicide based on back propagation neural network and multilayer perceptron.

Front Neuroinform. 2022-8-11

[7]
Structured data vs. unstructured data in machine learning prediction models for suicidal behaviors: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Front Digit Health. 2022-8-2

[8]
Artificial intelligence and suicide prevention: a systematic review.

Eur Psychiatry. 2022-2-15

[9]
Leveraging data science to enhance suicide prevention research: a literature review.

Inj Prev. 2022-2

[10]
A Comprehensive Review of Computer-Aided Diagnosis of Major Mental and Neurological Disorders and Suicide: A Biostatistical Perspective on Data Mining.

Diagnostics (Basel). 2021-2-25

本文引用的文献

[1]
The relationship between alcohol abuse and suicide risk according to smoking status: A cross-sectional study.

J Affect Disord. 2019-2-1

[2]
Use of a Machine Learning Algorithm to Predict Individuals with Suicide Ideation in the General Population.

Psychiatry Investig. 2018-11

[3]
Predicting Suicide Attempts and Suicide Deaths Following Outpatient Visits Using Electronic Health Records.

Am J Psychiatry. 2018-5-24

[4]
Classification of Suicide Attempts through a Machine Learning Algorithm Based on Multiple Systemic Psychiatric Scales.

Front Psychiatry. 2017-9-29

[5]
Risk factors of suicide attempt among people with suicidal ideation in South Korea: a cross-sectional study.

BMC Public Health. 2017-6-15

[6]
Suicide Attempt as a Risk Factor for Completed Suicide: Even More Lethal Than We Knew.

Am J Psychiatry. 2016-11-1

[7]
Letter to the Editor: Suicide as a complex classification problem: machine learning and related techniques can advance suicide prediction - a reply to Roaldset (2016).

Psychol Med. 2016-7

[8]
Identifying a clinical signature of suicidality among patients with mood disorders: A pilot study using a machine learning approach.

J Affect Disord. 2016-3-15

[9]
Psychosocial-Environmental Risk Factors for Suicide Attempts in Adolescents with Suicidal Ideation: Findings from a Sample of 73,238 Adolescents.

Suicide Life Threat Behav. 2014-12-2

[10]
Characteristics of suicidal ideation that predict the transition to future suicide attempts in adolescents.

J Child Psychol Psychiatry. 2014-11

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