Climate factors associated with the population dynamics of Sitodiplosis mosellana (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae) in central China.

Understanding the impacts of climate on insect pest population dynamics is crucial in forecasting pest outbreaks and developing a sustainable pest management strategy. The orange wheat blossom midge, Sitodiplosis mosellana (Géhin), is a chronic winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) pest in China, and its population density can strongly fluctuate. We analyzed climate factors (temperature and precipitation) associated with population dynamics of S. mosellana in a large-scale field trial in central China from 1984 to 2013 using Generalized linear mixed effects models. We found total precipitation during January-March was significantly positively correlated with population density of S. mosellana, whereas temperature parameters were not correlated with the population levels. Moreover, S. mosellana population size was significantly negative effected by interaction between temperature and precipitation, which showed that high precipitation with low temperature in spring also reduced the population density. This suggests that annual population size of S. mosellana in Central China is determined by soil moisture in early spring. These results provide basic information that will help in forecasting population levels and in developing a sound pest management strategy for S. mosellana.