Long-term Risk of Recurrence in Surgically Treated Renal Cell Carcinoma: A Post Hoc Analysis of the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group-American College of Radiology Imaging Network E2805 Trial Cohort.

Currently, surveillance guidelines following surgical resection of clinically localized renal cell carcinoma (RCC) are clear within the first 5 yr; however, these lack the same degree of objectivity following this cutoff. We sought to investigate the long-term risk of recurrence in surgically treated RCC in order to determine the utility of long-term surveillance. A post hoc analysis of patients within the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group-American College of Radiology Imaging Network (ECOG-ACRIN) E2805 trial cohort was performed. The 36-mo cumulative incidence of recurrence was assessed at set intervals following surgery, in order to dynamically assess recurrence through the use of a conditional survival model. Of the 1943 patients included in the original cohort, 730 developed recurrence. The 36-mo cumulative incidences of recurrence were found to be 31%, 26%, 19%, 16%, 19%, and 20% for patients at 0, 12, 24, 36, 48, and 60 mo from surgery, respectively. At 0 mo from surgery, age, pathological T3/4 stage (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.56), pathological N1/2 stage (HR = 2.38), and Fuhrman grades 3 and 4 (HR = 1.36 and HR = 2.41, respectively) were independent predictors of recurrence; however, this was not seen at 60 mo following surgery. These findings support that surveillance imaging should be performed beyond 5 yr following surgical resection of intermediate- to high-risk RCC. PATIENT SUMMARY: : Follow-up for surgically resected localized renal cell carcinoma should be performed beyond 5 yr, for the rates of recurrence remain significant beyond this 5 yr endpoint.