Emergency Response Department Science and Technology (ERD S&T), Public Health England, Porton Down, Wiltshire, United Kingdom, SP4 0JG.
Health Protection Scotland, Glasgow, United Kingdom.
PLoS One. 2019 Nov 25;14(11):e0224144. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0224144. eCollection 2019.
Legionnaires' disease, a form of pneumonia which can be fatal, is transmitted via the inhalation of water droplets containing Legionella bacteria. These droplets can be dispersed in the atmosphere several kilometers from their source. The most common such sources are contaminated water within cooling towers and other air-conditioning systems but other sources such as ornamental fountains and spa pools have also caused outbreaks of the disease in the past. There is an obvious need to locate and eliminate any such sources as quickly as possible. Here a maximum likelihood model estimating the source of an outbreak from case location data has been developed and implemented. Unlike previous models, the average dose exposure sub-model is formulated using a atmospheric dispersion model. How the uncertainty in inferred parameters can be estimated is discussed. The model is applied to the 2012 Edinburgh Legionnaires' disease outbreak.
军团病是一种肺炎形式，可能致命，通过吸入含有军团菌的水滴传播。这些水滴可以在离源头数公里的地方散布在大气中。最常见的此类来源是冷却塔和其他空调系统内受污染的水，但过去也有其他来源，如装饰性喷泉和温泉池，导致疾病爆发。显然需要尽快找到并消除任何此类来源。在这里，已经开发和实施了一种从病例位置数据估计暴发源的最大似然模型。与以前的模型不同，平均剂量暴露子模型是使用大气扩散模型来制定的。讨论了如何估计推断参数的不确定性。该模型应用于 2012 年爱丁堡军团病爆发。
