Institute of Applied Health Sciences, School of Medicine, Medical Sciences and Nutrition, University of Aberdeen, Foresterhill, Aberdeen AB25 2ZD, UK.
Department of Surgery, Queen Elizabeth University Hospital, Glasgow G51 4TF, UK.
Ann Surg. 2021 Dec 1;274(6):e522-e528. doi: 10.1097/SLA.0000000000003769.
To calculate the current and projected financial burden of EGS hospital admissions in a single-payer healthcare system.
EGS is an important acute care service, which demands significant healthcare resources. EGS admissions and associated costs have increased over time, associated with an aging demographic. The National Health Service is the sole provider of emergency care in Scotland.
Principal, high and low Scottish population projections were obtained for 2016 until 2041. EGS admission data were projected using an ordinary least squares linear regression model. An exponential function, fitted to historical length of hospital stay (LOS) data, was used to project future LOS. Historical hospital unit cost per bed day was projected using a linear regression model. EGS cost was calculated to 2041 by multiplying annual projections of population, admission rates, LOS, and cost per bed day.
The adult (age >15) Scottish population is projected to increase from 4.5 million to 4.8 million between 2016 and 2041. During this time, EGS admissions are expected to increase from 83,132 to 101,090 per year, cost per bed day from £786 to £1534, and overall EGS cost from £187.3 million to £202.5 million.
The future financial burden of EGS in Scotland is projected to increase moderately between 2016 and 2041. This is in sharp contrast to previous studies from settings such as the United States. However, if no further reductions in LOS or cost per bed day are made, especially for elderly patients, the cost of EGS will rise dramatically.
在单一支付者医疗体系下，计算急诊入院的当前和预计财务负担。
急诊入院是一项重要的急性护理服务，需要大量的医疗资源。随着人口老龄化，急诊入院人数和相关费用不断增加。苏格兰国民保健制度是苏格兰唯一的急救服务提供者。
获得了 2016 年至 2041 年期间的主要、高和低苏格兰人口预测数据。使用普通最小二乘线性回归模型预测急诊入院数据。使用拟合历史住院时间（LOS）数据的指数函数来预测未来的 LOS。使用线性回归模型预测历史医院床位日成本。通过将人口、入院率、LOS 和床位日成本的年度预测相乘，计算到 2041 年的急诊入院费用。
2016 年至 2041 年期间，成年（年龄> 15 岁）苏格兰人口预计从 450 万增加到 480 万。在此期间，急诊入院预计将从每年 83132 例增加到 101090 例，床位日成本从 786 英镑增加到 1534 英镑，急诊入院总成本从 1.873 亿英镑增加到 2.025 亿英镑。
2016 年至 2041 年期间，苏格兰急诊入院的未来财务负担预计将适度增加。这与美国等其他国家的先前研究形成鲜明对比。然而，如果不能进一步减少 LOS 或床位日成本，尤其是老年患者，急诊入院的成本将大幅上升。
