Using Monte Carlo method to include polygenic effects in calculation of SNP-BLUP model reliability.

An SNP-BLUP model is computationally scalable even for large numbers of genotyped animals. When genetic variation cannot be completely captured by SNP markers, a more accurate model is obtained by fitting a residual polygenic effect (RPG) as well. However, inclusion of the RPG effect increases the size of the SNP-BLUP mixed model equations (MME) by the number of genotyped animals. Consequently, the calculation of model reliabilities requiring elements of the inverted MME coefficient matrix becomes more computationally challenging with increasing numbers of genotyped animals. We present a Monte Carlo (MC)-based sampling method to estimate the reliability of the SNP-BLUP model including the RPG effect, where the MME size depends on the number of markers and MC samples. We compared reliabilities calculated using different RPG proportions and different MC sample sizes in analyzing 2 data sets. Data set 1 (data set 2) contained 19,757 (222,619) genotyped animals, with 11,729 (50,240) SNP markers, and 231,186 (13.35 million) pedigree animals. Correlations between the correct and the MC-calculated reliabilities were above 98% even with 5,000 MC samples and an 80% RPG proportion in both data sets. However, more MC samples were needed to achieve a small maximum absolute difference and mean squared error, particularly when the RPG proportion exceeded 20%. The computing time for MC SNP-BLUP was shorter than for GBLUP. In conclusion, the MC-based approach can be an effective strategy for calculating SNP-BLUP model reliability with an RPG effect included.