Cheng Yung-Hsiang, Chang Yu-Hern, Lu I J
Department of Transportation and Communication Management Science, National Cheng Kung University, No. 1, University Road, Tainan City 701, Taiwan, ROC.
Industrial Technology Research Institute, Rm. 303a, Bldg. 64, 3F, 195, Sec. 4, Chung Hsing Rd., Chutung, Hsinchu 310, Taiwan, ROC.
Appl Energy. 2015 Nov 1;157:953-973. doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.01.126. Epub 2015 Mar 9.
Sustainability is an urban development priority. Thus, energy and carbon dioxide emission reduction is becoming more significant in the sustainability of urban transportation systems. However, urban transportation systems are complex and involve social, economic, and environmental aspects. We present solutions for a sustainable urban transportation system by establishing a simplified system dynamics model with a timeframe of 30 years (from 1995 to 2025) to simulate the effects of urban transportation management policies and to explore their potential in reducing vehicular fuel consumption and mitigating CO emissions. Kaohsiung City was selected as a case study because it is the second largest metropolis in Taiwan and is an important industrial center. Three policies are examined in the study including fuel tax, motorcycle parking management, and free bus service. Simulation results indicate that both the fuel tax and motorcycle parking management policies are suggested as potentially the most effective methods for restraining the growth of the number of private vehicles, the amount of fuel consumption, and CO emissions. We also conducted a synthetic policy consisting of all policies which outperforms the three individual policies. The conclusions of this study can assist urban transport planners in designing appropriate urban transport management strategies and can assist transport operation agencies in creating operational strategies to reduce their energy consumption and CO emissions. The proposed approach should be generalized in other cities to develop an appropriate model to understand the various effects of policies on energy and CO emissions.
可持续性是城市发展的优先事项。因此,减少能源消耗和二氧化碳排放对于城市交通系统的可持续性变得愈发重要。然而,城市交通系统十分复杂,涉及社会、经济和环境等多个方面。我们通过建立一个时间跨度为30年(从1995年至2025年)的简化系统动力学模型,来呈现可持续城市交通系统的解决方案,以模拟城市交通管理政策的效果,并探索其在降低车辆燃油消耗和减少一氧化碳排放方面的潜力。高雄市被选为案例研究对象,因为它是台湾第二大城市,也是一个重要的工业中心。本研究考察了三项政策,包括燃油税、摩托车停车管理和免费公交服务。模拟结果表明,燃油税和摩托车停车管理政策被认为可能是抑制私家车数量增长、燃油消耗和一氧化碳排放的最有效方法。我们还实施了一项由所有政策组成的综合政策,其效果优于这三项单独的政策。本研究的结论可以帮助城市交通规划者设计合适的城市交通管理策略,并帮助交通运营机构制定运营策略以降低能源消耗和一氧化碳排放。所提出的方法应推广到其他城市,以开发合适的模型来理解政策对能源和一氧化碳排放的各种影响。