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新型冠状病毒病 2019(COVID-19)感染患者死亡的危险因素:观察性研究的系统评价和荟萃分析。

Risk factors for mortality in patients with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies.

机构信息

Department of Cellular and Molecular Nutrition, School of Nutritional Sciences and Dietetics, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Department of Clinical Microbiology, Iranshahr University of Medical Sciences, Iranshahr, Iran.

出版信息

Aging Male. 2020 Dec;23(5):1416-1424. doi: 10.1080/13685538.2020.1774748. Epub 2020 Jun 8.

DOI:10.1080/13685538.2020.1774748
PMID:32508193
Abstract

PURPOSE

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an emerging disease that was first reported in Wuhan city, the capital of Hubei province in China, and has subsequently spread worldwide. Risk factors for mortality have not been well summarized. Current meta-analysis of retrospective cohort studies was done to summarize available findings on the association between age, gender, comorbidities and risk of death from COVID-19 infection.

METHODS

Online databases including Web of Science, PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane Library and Google scholar were searched to detect relevant publications up to 1 May 2020, using relevant keywords. To pool data, random-effects model was used. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis and publication bias test were also done.

RESULTS

In total, 14 studies with 29,909 COVID-19 infected patients and 1445 cases of death were included in the current meta-analysis. Significant associations were found between older age (≥65 vs <65 years old) (pooled ORs = 4.59, 95%CIs = 2.61-8.04,  < .001), gender (male vs female) (pooled ORs = 1.50, 95%CIs = 1.06-2.12,  = .021) and risk of death from COVID-19 infection. In addition, hypertension (pooled ORs = 2.70, 95%CIs = 1.40-5.24,  = .003), cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) (pooled ORs = 3.72, 95%CIs = 1.77-7.83,  = .001), diabetes (pooled ORs = 2.41, 95%CIs = 1.05-5.51,  = .037), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (pooled ORs = 3.53, 95%CIs = 1.79-6.96,  < .001) and cancer (pooled ORs = 3.04, 95%CIs = 1.80-5.14,  < .001), were associated with higher risk of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Older age (≥65 years old), male gender, hypertension, CVDs, diabetes, COPD and malignancies were associated with greater risk of death from COVID-19 infection. These findings could help clinicians to identify patients with poor prognosis at an early stage.

摘要

目的

2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)是一种新发疾病,最初在中国湖北省省会武汉市报告,随后在全球范围内传播。死亡率的危险因素尚未得到很好的总结。目前对回顾性队列研究进行了荟萃分析,以总结年龄、性别、合并症与 COVID-19 感染死亡风险之间的关联的现有发现。

方法

在线数据库包括 Web of Science、PubMed、Scopus、Cochrane Library 和 Google Scholar,使用相关关键词检索截至 2020 年 5 月 1 日的相关文献。使用随机效应模型汇总数据。此外,还进行了敏感性分析和发表偏倚检验。

结果

本荟萃分析共纳入 14 项研究,涉及 29909 例 COVID-19 感染患者和 1445 例死亡病例。年龄较大(≥65 岁比<65 岁)(合并 ORs=4.59,95%CI=2.61-8.04,<0.001)、性别(男性比女性)(合并 ORs=1.50,95%CI=1.06-2.12,=0.021)与 COVID-19 感染死亡风险显著相关。此外,高血压(合并 ORs=2.70,95%CI=1.40-5.24,=0.003)、心血管疾病(CVDs)(合并 ORs=3.72,95%CI=1.77-7.83,=0.001)、糖尿病(合并 ORs=2.41,95%CI=1.05-5.51,=0.037)、慢性阻塞性肺疾病(COPD)(合并 ORs=3.53,95%CI=1.79-6.96,<0.001)和癌症(合并 ORs=3.04,95%CI=1.80-5.14,<0.001)与更高的死亡率相关。

结论

年龄较大(≥65 岁)、男性、高血压、CVDs、糖尿病、COPD 和恶性肿瘤与 COVID-19 感染死亡风险增加相关。这些发现可以帮助临床医生在早期识别预后不良的患者。