Bureau of Economic Geology, Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, 78758, USA.
Environ Manage. 2020 Sep;66(3):348-363. doi: 10.1007/s00267-020-01308-2. Epub 2020 Jun 26.
Projecting landscape impacts from energy development is essential to land management decisions. We forecast landscape alteration resulting from oil and gas well-pad construction across the economically important Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico, USA, by projecting current landscape trends through 2050. We modeled three landscape-impact scenarios (low, medium, and high) using recent (2008-2017) trends in well-pad construction and energy production. The results of low-, medium-, and high-impact scenarios suggest that ~60,000, ~180,000, and ~430,000 new well pads could be constructed, potentially causing ~1000, ~2800, and ~6700 km of new direct landscape alteration. Almost two-thirds of all new well pads will be constructed within the geologic boundaries of the Delaware and Midland Basins. This translates into a 40, 120, and 300% increase in direct landscape alteration compared with direct alteration from existing well pads. We found that indirect effects (from edges) could increase by twofold, and that the ratio between indirect and direct alteration could decline by half as alteration intensifies and overlaps with existing alteration. The Chihuahuan Desert occupies the largest portion of the study area, and is projected to experience the largest area of alteration from future well-pad construction in the Permian Basin; the degree of direct alteration could increase by 70, 200, and 500% in this desert region, under low-, medium-, and high-impact scenarios. These scenarios can be used to design proactive conservation strategies to reduce landscape impacts from future oil and gas development.
预测能源开发对景观的影响对于土地管理决策至关重要。我们通过预测 2050 年当前景观趋势，预测了美国德克萨斯州和新墨西哥州经济重要的二叠纪盆地石油和天然气井场建设所导致的景观变化。我们使用最近（2008-2017 年）井场建设和能源生产的趋势，模拟了三种景观影响情景（低、中、高）。低、中、高影响情景的结果表明，可能会建造约 60000、180000 和 430000 个新的井场，可能导致约 1000、2800 和 6700 公里的新直接景观改变。几乎三分之二的新井场将建在特拉华和米德兰盆地的地质边界内。这意味着与现有井场的直接改造相比，直接改造的比例将分别增加 40%、120%和 300%。我们发现，间接影响（来自边缘）可能增加一倍，并且随着改造的加剧和与现有改造的重叠，间接和直接改造之间的比例可能下降一半。奇瓦瓦沙漠占据了研究区域的最大部分，预计在二叠纪盆地未来的井场建设中，该地区将经历最大面积的景观改变；在低、中、高影响情景下，该沙漠地区的直接改造程度可能分别增加 70%、200%和 500%。这些情景可用于设计主动保护策略，以减少未来石油和天然气开发对景观的影响。
