Are population isolations and declines a threat to island endemic water striders? A lesson from demographic and niche modelling of Metrocoris esakii (Hemiptera: Gerridae).

Genetic stochasticity and bottlenecking in the course of Pleistocene glaciations have been identified as threatening the survival of local endemics. However, the mechanisms by which local endemic species balance the influences of these two events remain poorly understood. Here, we generated a double-digest restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (ddRAD-seq) data set, mined mitochondrial sequences and constructed ecological niche models for the island endemic water strider Metrocoris esakii (Hemiptera: Gerridae). We found that M. esakii comprised three divergent lineages (i.e., north, central and south) isolated by geographical barriers and generally experienced population declines with the constriction of suitable areas during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Further demographic model testing and stairway plots revealed a history of recent gene flow among the neighbouring lineages and rapid recovery at the end of the LGM, indicating that M. esakii at least had the potential for an adaptive response to population fragmentation and bottlenecking. The northern lineage did not show genetic bottlenecking during the LGM, which was probably due to its large effective population size (N ) from migration, which improved its adaptive potential. Relative to the ddRAD-seq data set, the demographic results based on mitochondrial sequences were less conclusive, showing weak differentiation and oversimplified demographic trajectories for the three genetic lineages. Overall, this study provides some degree of optimism for the survival of island endemic water striders from a demographic perspective, but further evaluation of their extinction risk under the impacts of human activities is required.