Schnitkey Gary D, Paulson Nicholas D, Irwin Scott H, Coppess Jonathan, Sherrick Bruce J, Swanson Krista J, Zulauf Carl R, Hubbs Todd
Appl Econ Perspect Policy. 2021 Mar;43(1):280-291. doi: 10.1002/aepp.13095. Epub 2020 Oct 11.
Impacts from the coronavirus pandemic have depressed market returns to corn and soybean farmers in the Midwest, extending pressures that have existed since 2013 and worsened by trade disputes with China. Without large ad hoc federal aid, income on Midwestern grain farms would have been quite low and the ongoing cash flow crunch much worse. Farmland prices have not adjusted downward, in part due to continuing ad hoc federal aid, but also because interest rates have been historically very low. The financial (solvency) position of Midwestern grain farms is surprisingly strong because of the strength in land values. However, the financial condition of Midwestern row-crop agriculture could deteriorate markedly if recent and large infusions of ad hoc federal aid dissipates or if interest rates rise sharply.
新冠疫情的影响压低了美国中西部玉米和大豆种植户的市场回报,延续了自2013年以来就存在且因与中国的贸易争端而加剧的压力。如果没有大规模的临时性联邦援助,中西部谷物农场的收入会相当低,持续的现金流紧张状况也会严重得多。农田价格尚未下调,部分原因是联邦政府持续提供临时性援助,也因为利率一直处于历史低位。由于土地价值坚挺,美国中西部谷物农场的财务(偿债能力)状况出人意料地强劲。然而,如果近期大规模的临时性联邦援助消失,或者利率大幅上升,美国中西部的行栽作物农业的财务状况可能会显著恶化。