Faculty of Engineering, Information and Systems, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8573, Japan.
Chaos. 2020 Oct;30(10):101103. doi: 10.1063/5.0023796.
Although there are various models of epidemic diseases, there are a few individual-based models that can guide susceptible individuals on how they should behave in a pandemic without its appropriate treatment. Such a model would be ideal for the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Thus, here, we propose a topological model of an epidemic disease, which can take into account various types of interventions through a time-dependent contact network. Based on this model, we show that there is a maximum allowed number of persons one can see each day for each person so that we can suppress the epidemic spread. Reducing the number of persons to see for the hub persons is a key countermeasure for the current COVID-19 pandemic.
虽然有各种流行疾病模型,但也有一些基于个体的模型可以指导易感人群在没有适当治疗的情况下如何在大流行中行事。对于当前的 2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)大流行来说,这样的模型是理想的。因此,在这里,我们提出了一种传染病的拓扑模型,该模型可以通过时变接触网络考虑各种类型的干预措施。基于这个模型,我们表明每个人每天可以看到的人数有一个最大允许值,这样我们就可以抑制疫情的传播。减少要见的人数对于当前的 COVID-19 大流行是一个关键的对策。