St-Onge Guillaume, Thibeault Vincent, Allard Antoine, Dubé Louis J, Hébert-Dufresne Laurent
ArXiv. 2021 Jan 29:arXiv:2003.05924v4.
Recommendations around epidemics tend to focus on individual behaviors, with much less efforts attempting to guide event cancellations and other collective behaviors since most models lack the higher-order structure necessary to describe large gatherings. Through a higher-order description of contagions on networks, we model the impact of a blanket cancellation of events larger than a critical size and find that epidemics can suddenly collapse when interventions operate over groups of individuals rather than at the level of individuals. We relate this phenomenon to the onset of mesoscopic localization, where contagions concentrate around dominant groups.
关于流行病的建议往往侧重于个人行为,而试图指导取消活动和其他集体行为的努力则少得多,因为大多数模型缺乏描述大型集会所需的高阶结构。通过对网络上传染病的高阶描述,我们模拟了全面取消大于临界规模的活动的影响,发现当干预措施作用于个体群体而非个体层面时,流行病可能会突然崩溃。我们将这种现象与介观定位的开始联系起来,在介观定位中,传染病集中在主导群体周围。